Poland leaves key interest rate at 3.75% as central bank weighs energy price inflation

Policy decision and rate levels

The Monetary Policy Council concluded its meeting on Wednesday, 7 October 2026, by maintaining all National Bank of Poland interest rates at existing levels. The decision keeps the main reference rate at 3.75%, where it has remained since a 25 basis point cut in March 2026. The lombard rate stands at 4.25%, the deposit rate at 3.25%, the rediscount rate at 3.80%, and the discount rate at 3.85%. Central bank governor Adam Glapiński addressed reporters in Warsaw on Thursday, 8 October, to explain the macroeconomic evaluation behind the decision.

Energy costs drive inflation above target

Official flash estimates from Statistics Poland placed consumer price inflation at 4.0% year on year for September 2026, up from 3.4% in August and gaining 0.7% on a month-on-month basis. This September reading took consumer price growth above the central bank target range of 2.5% with an allowable variation of plus or minus one percentage point. Glapiński stated that energy prices generated 60% of the consumer price index increase in September, a contribution 1.6 percentage points higher than recorded in June. He attributed elevated commodity prices directly to international supply shocks caused by the ongoing Middle East conflict, which elevated global crude oil and European natural gas prices. The central bank head added that retail fuel costs climbed because of an absence of government shielding measures.

Spillover assessment and the November outlook

Despite higher pump prices, Glapiński assessed that secondary effects across other sectors of the economy remain contained for the moment. Central bank calculations indicate that core inflation excluding food and energy eased in September, reflecting limited price transmission across general goods and services. Glapiński stated that existing forecasts show annual inflation may move back below 3.5% as early as October. Addressing market discussion regarding a possible policy tightening at the November meeting, Glapiński stated that an increase is possible but that he does not expect it based on current data. The Council will review updated macroeconomic projections prepared by bank staff before deciding on interest rates in November. Glapiński confirmed the readiness of the monetary authority to respond if price pressures broaden.

If risks regarding inflation increase, the Council is ready to act.

Fiscal risks and expanding gold reserves

Glapiński pointed to external and domestic factors that could sustain inflation pressures into 2027, including consumer demand, low unemployment, and economic activity in Germany. He noted the absence of fiscal tightening in the draft state budget for 2027, which projects a general government deficit of 7.1% of gross domestic product. While acknowledging that higher borrowing costs complicate sovereign debt management, Glapiński defended monetary policy independence in a recent written message.

Of course, we have a huge deficit, we have fast-growing debt. Higher rates will not help of course, but our primary goal is keeping prices under control.

The central bank governor also reported that Poland held 672 tonnes and 900 kilograms of gold at the end of September 2026, valued at 348.6 billion zlotys. The bank maintains an official objective of building national gold reserves to 700 tonnes.