Złoty holds near 4.38 per euro as NBP sets dollar at 3.9132 zł
The National Bank of Poland set the euro at 4.3789 zł and the dollar at 3.9132 zł in its noon table on Thursday, while Polish bond yields moved and analysts pointed to growing bets on rate hikes in the United States and Europe.
Official NBP rates on Thursday
On Thursday 8 October 2026 the National Bank of Poland published its table of average exchange rates at noon. The euro stood at 4.3789 zł, the US dollar at 3.9132 zł, the pound sterling at 5.1635 zł and the Swiss franc at 4.6926 zł. The same table set the Ukrainian hryvnia at 0.0873 zł, the Swedish krona at 0.3912 zł, the Norwegian krone at 0.4092 zł and the Czech koruna at 0.1794 zł. FAKT24.pl put the euro's day-on-day change at 0.0008 zł and its week-on-week change at +0.0019 zł, and its rate tables were built on the same NBP data. FAKT24 advised readers to check the latest rate before deciding whether to exchange dollars.
- Euro (EUR)
- 4.3789 PLN
- US dollar (USD)
- 3.9132 PLN
- Pound sterling (GBP)
- 5.1635 PLN
- Swiss franc (CHF)
- 4.6926 PLN
Intraday moves and the Hormuz backdrop
By 17:10 the EUR/PLN rate had risen 0.03% to 4.3804, USD/PLN had fallen 0.12% to 3.9076 and EUR/USD had gained 0.15% to 1.121, according to Forsal.pl. Rafał Sadoch, an analyst at BM mBank, told PAP Biznes that the dollar was continuing a strong run and that EUR/USD had dropped below 1.12, which he called unfavourable for the złoty. Reports said transport through the Strait of Hormuz had decreased again in recent days. Sadoch said attacks on tankers had occurred and that the tone of the situation had changed.
Attacks on tankers have appeared, and while Donald Trump earlier communicated that there would be no resumption of military action before the by-elections to Congress, at this point that tone has changed.
Sadoch added that a further escalation in the Middle East, limiting oil supply, would lead markets to fear higher inflation and rising bond yields, which could weigh on the domestic currency. Forsal also reported that the key domestic event of the day was a press conference by NBP president Adam Glapiński. Analysts assessed that the RPP was not inclined to tighten monetary policy quickly.
Bond yields and rate-hike bets
Polish bond yields moved in different directions on Thursday. The 2-year yield fell 1 bp to 4.72%, the 5-year rose 2 bp to 5.87% and the 10-year rose 1 bp to 6.3%. Sadoch said markets increasingly price in rate hikes in both the United States and Europe, which could push yields higher still.
The market is pricing in that in the United States one more rate hike will come by the end of the year, and that it will be similar in Europe.
- 2-year
- 4.72 %
- 5-year
- 5.87 %
- 10-year
- 6.3 %
Sadoch went on to say that if inflation fears strengthened and yields kept rising worldwide, domestic bonds would move in the same direction.
If concerns related to inflation keep strengthening and if yields keep rising around the world, domestic bonds will move in the same direction.
Debt worries and the euro
Markets are also concerned about the outlook for further debt growth in France. FAKT24.pl noted that 20 of the 27 EU countries have adopted the euro and that Poland has committed to adopting it, but no date has been decided. The article said that adoption would involve a period of dual circulation of both currencies, with a fixed conversion rate set about half a year before the switch. The dollar, FAKT24 added, is the most widely held reserve currency among central banks, and Federal Reserve policy affects its value: lowering rates can weaken it, while raising them can strengthen it.
