Midterms on 3 November: Democrats favored for House, Senate races tight

What is on the ballot

On Tuesday, 3 November 2026, voters across the United States elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 Senate seats. Republicans currently hold a majority in both chambers, so the result decides which party controls Congress for the next two years. University of Virginia analyst J. Miles Coleman has described midterms as often a referendum on the president and the party in power. Governors are also up for election in 36 states, and Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands and the US Virgin Islands choose their heads of government. Almost 150 ballot measures are scheduled across nearly every state, while Everytown for Gun Safety is backing Democratic attorney general candidates with ten million dollars.

House of Representatives seats435

Senate seats up for election35

States electing governors36

House of Representatives seats

435

Senate seats up for election

35

States electing governors

36

Data from the article text

Economy and approval set the mood

An AP-Norc poll cited by 20 Minuten found that about four in five respondents call the economy a central issue for them. Health policy follows, then the war in Iran, with immigration, tariffs and abortion rights also on the agenda. SRF reports that Trump's approval rating sits between 30 and 40 percent, depending on the poll, while Deutsche Welle says it is at a record low. Forecasts cited by SRF put the Democrats clearly ahead in the House, and Julien Labarre expects them to lead there as well. Labarre also believes the White House is preparing for a narrow result, even though Trump hopes for a clear Republican win.

Races to watch

Julien Labarre will follow the results for 20 Minuten on election night and says he will focus on Texas, Maine and Michigan. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico gives his party a realistic chance at a Senate seat for the first time since 1988. Labarre says Latino voters, who make up more than 30 percent of Texas's eligible voters, could return to the Democrats over their dissatisfaction with ICE and Trump's policies.

“The Democrats have a very strong candidate.”

In Maine, Republican Susan Collins is seeking a sixth term after sitting in the Senate since 1996. Her original Democratic challenger, Graham Platner, withdrew after several scandals surfaced that he has denied. His replacement, Troy Jackson, is a conventional Democrat who, according to Labarre, is now practically level with Collins in the polls. Labarre sees Michigan as the state that worries Democrats most.

“The Democrats need the state to win.”

In Alaska, Republican Daniel S. Sullivan faces Democrat Mary Peltola, a former congresswoman who would be the state's first Indigenous senator. Alaska uses ranked-choice voting with up to five preferences, and polls currently put Peltola ahead. In Iowa, Joni Ernst is not running again, and Republican Ashley Hinson faces Democrat Josh Turek, a two-time Paralympic gold medallist in wheelchair basketball. According to the New York Times, the Iowa race is nearly even.

What a Democratic majority could change

Watson notes that a Democratic House could open impeachment proceedings against Trump, but a conviction would require two-thirds of the Senate. Claudia Brühwiler, a political scientist at the University of St. Gallen, told SRF's Q&A that Democrats holding both chambers could pass a resolution obliging the president to withdraw US forces from unauthorised combat, though not immediately or easily. Watson adds that losing a majority in either chamber would make it much harder for Republicans to push through legislation. Watson judges the chance that Trump keeps both chambers to be rather small.