Democrats gain edge in Senate and House races as Trump approval falls to 37%

Senate battlegrounds expand into red states

Thirty days before the midterm elections, polling shows Republican candidates trailing in Senate races across states that Donald Trump carried by double digits in 2024. Surveys conducted by the New York Times and Siena University show Democratic Senate nominees leading in Alaska, Ohio, and Texas. In Kansas, which has not elected a Democrat to the Senate in 94 years, Adam Hamilton is tied with Republican incumbent Roger Marshall, while Josh Turek is narrowly trailing Ashley Hinson in Iowa. In Alaska, where commercial fisheries produce roughly 60% of US wild seafood, Democratic challenger Mary Peltola has centered her campaign against incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan on a proposed ban on factory trawlers. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer commented on the polling trends over the weekend.

Candidate quality is beating gobs of Republican money.

House targeting and defensive spending

Democrats are also expanding their focus in House races, where the Cook Political Report projects a net gain of five to 15 seats. Such an outcome would give the party between 220 and 230 seats in January, above the 218 needed for a majority. Democratic strategists are weighing whether to target less expensive open seats in Republican areas or spend heavily against established Republican incumbents in suburban districts. In Pennsylvania's First Congressional District, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee directed $900,000 to challenger Bob Harvie against Republican Brian Fitzpatrick, while House Majority PAC reserved more than $6 million in television advertising. Representative Suzan DelBene described the committee's long-term calculus when allocating limited funds.

Obviously we want the strongest majority possible in 2026, but also with an eye toward 2028.

Resource reallocation in North Carolina

In the North Carolina Senate race between Democrat Roy Cooper and Republican Michael Whatley, both parties have adjusted their advertising spending. Democratic group WinSenate removed roughly $1.1 million in television buys while keeping approximately $18.8 million reserved through Election Day. Republican spending has also pulled back in the state, with the Senate Leadership Fund pausing future expenditures, Americans for Prosperity Action omitting North Carolina from its $22 million campaign slate, and Old North Action cancelling $6.5 million in reservations. Morgan Jackson, a senior adviser to Cooper, warned against complacency despite recent polling advantages.

North Carolina is a truly 50/50 state and Democrats haven't won a US Senate race in 18 years. We can't take anything for granted or our eye off the ball.

State legislative contests and approval ratings

Down-ballot races reflect similar pressure on the Republican Party across state legislatures, where the party has held a majority of seats since netting nearly 700 seats in 2010. A Washington Post analysis found Democrats could break unified Republican control in up to six states and establish unified control in up to seven, targeting states such as Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Nevada. Republicans face these headwinds as Trump carries a 37% approval rating in polling averages, matching George W. Bush in 2006 for the lowest pre-midterm mark in 50 years. In an NPR, PBS News, and Marist poll, 53% of respondents reported strong disapproval of the president. Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee president Heather Williams pointed to the state legislative landscape as a key target for the party.

2026 is proving to be a once-in-a-generation opportunity for Democrats to shift the balance of power away from Republicans.