German Chancellor Merz approval falls to 10% in poll as AfD leads with 27%

Record low approval for the chancellor

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has seen his approval rating drop to 10% in the ARD-Deutschlandtrend survey released on 1 October 2026. The figure, compiled by Infratest Dimap from 1,303 eligible voters between 28 and 30 September, represents the lowest satisfaction rating recorded for a sitting chancellor since the survey began in 1997. Approximately 88% of respondents reported being dissatisfied with his performance, an increase of five percentage points over the past month. Within the satisfaction metric, 1% of respondents described themselves as very satisfied and 9% as satisfied. Discontent with the wider federal coalition of the CDU/CSU and SPD stood at 89%, while only 10% approved of the government's performance.

Discontent across political party bases

Disapproval of the governing coalition extended across both coalition supporters and opposition bases. Among CDU and CSU voters, 67% expressed dissatisfaction with the administration's performance, while 82% of SPD supporters reported dissatisfaction. Opposition party voters voiced nearly unanimous disapproval, with 98% of Alternative for Germany (AfD) supporters and 99% of Die Linke voters criticising the federal government. The poll followed September state elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where the AfD achieved victories, and in Berlin, where Die Linke secured a win in the House of Representatives. The regional election outcomes previously prompted internal party criticism of Merz's leadership.

Voting intentions and party standings

In the federal voting intention question, the AfD retained first place for the sixth consecutive month with 27% of the vote. The CDU/CSU alliance slipped by one percentage point to 20%, reaching its lowest point in the Deutschlandtrend since September 2021. Bündnis 90/Die Grünen gained one percentage point to reach 16%, their strongest level in more than three years. The SPD remained unchanged at 13%, while Die Linke declined by one percentage point to 11%. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) polled at 4%, leaving it below the 5% threshold required to enter the Bundestag, while other parties combined took 9%.

Divergence in cabinet minister ratings

Satisfaction ratings for members of the federal cabinet differed substantially from the chancellor's figures. Defence Minister Boris Pistorius of the SPD remained the highest-rated government figure, with 50% of respondents expressing satisfaction with his work, down one percentage point. Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul recorded a 34% approval rating, while Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt registered 27%. Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil received 20% satisfaction, followed by Health Minister Carsten Linnemann at 18% and Labour Minister Bärbel Bas at 17%.

Public outlook on social welfare systems

The survey evaluated public views regarding social welfare and economic conditions in Germany. Only 17% of respondents expressed confidence in the federal government's capacity to secure social safety nets for the future, while 79% doubted the administration's ability to do so. In terms of reform mechanisms, 50% of citizens indicated a willingness to accept personal cuts if the necessity was clearly explained, and 61% favored tiering reductions according to individual financial circumstances. When asked to choose between reform options, 41% preferred higher social contribution rates, while 37% favoured benefit reductions. Furthermore, 77% of respondents stated they felt increasing financial burdens despite government relief pledges, with roughly half fearing they will be unable to maintain their standard of living.