AfD extends lead over Union to 28% to 22% in new ZDF Politbarometer

Poll standings

The ZDF Politbarometer from the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, published on Friday, 13 November, puts the AfD at 28 percent if a federal election were held on the following Sunday. That is two points more than in the previous Politbarometer. The Union (CDU/CSU) would fall one point to 22 percent, which widens the gap to six points. The SPD would lose one point to 13 percent, while the Greens would gain two points to 15 percent and move into third place. The Left would drop to 10 percent, the FDP would stay at 3 percent and remain outside the Bundestag, and all other parties together would reach 9 percent. The black-red coalition of Union and SPD would still lack a majority.

AfD28%

Union (CDU/CSU)22%

Greens15%

SPD13%

Left10%

FDP3%

Others9%

AfD

28 %

Union (CDU/CSU)

22 %

Greens

15 %

SPD

13 %

Left

10 %

FDP

3 %

Others

9 %

Data from the article text

Debt and the 2027 budget

The survey asked 1,297 randomly selected eligible voters by telephone and online between 10 and 12 November about the government's planned very high borrowing. 59 percent consider it wrong, 32 percent consider it right, and the rest said they did not know. Süddeutsche Zeitung puts the new debt in the budget at just under 123 billion euros and calculates that the defence exemption allows roughly 84.5 billion euros more. Die Welt gives the figure for the 2027 budget as about 210 billion euros. The two figures conflict, so both are reported as published. Opinion follows party lines, with the strongest rejection among AfD supporters, 95 percent of whom consider the borrowing wrong.

How Germans would close the gap

Asked how to close the budget gaps, 61 percent favour savings, 21 percent higher taxes and contributions, and only 9 percent additional borrowing. Among AfD supporters 87 percent favour savings, and among Union supporters 73 percent do. Union supporters lean against the debt itself, with 54 percent rejecting it and 42 percent accepting it. SPD supporters lean the other way, with 47 percent in favour and 36 percent against. Higher taxes draw most support from Left supporters (50 percent), Greens (40 percent) and SPD supporters (32 percent).

Savings61%

Higher taxes and contributions21%

Additional debt9%

Savings

61 %

Higher taxes and contributions

21 %

Additional debt

9 %

Data from the article text

Other polls and the succession question

A Forsa poll for RTL and ntv published on Tuesday, 10 November, had shown the AfD at 27 percent and the Union at 20 percent, with the Greens on 16 percent and the SPD on 13 percent. In that poll 86 percent of respondents were dissatisfied with Chancellor Friedrich Merz's work, including 56 percent of Union supporters. The ZDF survey also asked about the succession to Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier. 50 percent said it would be good if Ilse Aigner (CSU), the Bavarian Landtag president, followed him, 12 percent opposed, and 33 percent did not mind. Chancellor Friedrich Merz and the CDU have also backed Aigner for the post.

Protests and generational views

The poll also measured support for young people's demonstrations for better education and against rising living costs. 83 percent of respondents expressed understanding, 15 percent did not, and 84 percent believe most demonstrators reject violent excesses on the edges of the protests. Among those over 60, 82 percent expressed understanding. Among under-35s, 50 percent think the federal government looks more after the interests of older people, while only 3 percent see younger people's interests weighted more heavily. Across the whole population 35 percent share the view that older people are favoured.

Methodology and limits

The survey has a margin of error of about three percentage points at a 40 percent share and about two points at 10 percent. Pollsters note that weakening party loyalty and shorter-term voting decisions make weighting the collected data harder. The survey is described as representative of eligible voters in Germany.