OGB poll: KO leads at 33.53% but right-wing bloc could claim Sejm majority with 254 seats

Poll results

The OGB survey, conducted via CATI between 5 and 12 August on a sample of 1000 respondents, places Koalicja Obywatelska (KO) first with 33.53% support. Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (PiS) trails in second at 22.34%, followed by Konfederacja at 15.82%. Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (KKP), the party led by Grzegorz Braun, recorded 10.51%, clearing the electoral threshold. Nowa Lewica reached 5.99%, and Rozwój Plus, the formation associated with former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, scored 5.49%. Three parties currently in the governing coalition would fall below the threshold: Partia Razem at 3.64%, PSL at 1.74%, and Polska 2050 at 0.94%. KO's lead over PiS exceeds 11 percentage points, yet the wpolityce.pl article notes this represents a 5-point drop from the previous OGB poll.

Seat projection

OGB's seat simulation gives KO 185 of the 460 Sejm seats, PiS 126, Konfederacja 79, KKP 49, Nowa Lewica 13, and Rozwój Plus 8. A governing majority requires 231 seats. KO and Nowa Lewica together would hold 198, leaving them 33 short. A right-wing coalition of PiS, Konfederacja and KKP would reach 254 seats, a comfortable majority. Including Rozwój Plus, the broader right-wing front would reach 262. KO has systematically recorded the highest support in recent months, but its dominance does not translate into a governing majority because its junior partners PSL and Polska 2050 fail to clear the threshold. Nowa Lewica sits dangerously close to the 5% threshold, and falling below it would spell the end of the current governing camp.

Pawłowski's assessment

OGB president Łukasz Pawłowski observed that despite shifts on the political scene, the balance of forces has barely changed. He noted that the October 15 coalition lacks a majority and that Braun holds the decisive role.

So it looks in August in the OGB survey. So much has changed, yet almost nothing has changed. K15X without a majority, Braun decides everything.

Pawłowski also commented on the support for Morawiecki's formation, noting it draws mainly from former PiS voters.

Support for Morawiecki's party is as in April, that is 5-6 percent, and these are all PiS voters.

Pawłowski contrasted the two sides of the political spectrum, arguing that the right is dynamic despite its divisions while the liberal camp is stagnant. He wrote that fatigue with the PiS-KO polarization is equally strong on both sides, but only on the right are new formations emerging and political environments engaging with each other. On the liberal side, he said, nobody challenges Tusk despite visible unfulfilled promises.

The Morawiecki factor

Jacek Karnowski, editor-in-chief of wPolska24 and the weekly Sieci, argued that the split between PiS and Rozwój Plus is counterproductive. He pointed out that the two formations together hold nearly 28% support, but Rozwój Plus mainly takes votes from PiS without necessarily bringing in more than a few MPs. Under Poland's electoral system, a divided PiS and Rozwój Plus would win fewer combined seats than an undivided PiS alone.

This split makes no sense. PiS and Rozwój Plus together have almost 28 percent support. Rozwój Plus mainly takes from PiS, and there is no certainty it will bring more than a few MPs. That is why this split makes no sense.

KO evaluates the Konfederacja environment very critically, especially Braun's KKP, making a coalition with either formation difficult to imagine. The most plausible path to power for PiS would involve an alliance with both Konfederacje, which would yield 254 seats and allow legislation to pass without difficulty.