KO leads Polish poll at 26% but 25% of voters remain undecided, Morawiecki's party falls short

Poll results

A survey conducted by ARC Rynek i Opinia for Rzeczpospolita between 28 July and 2 August 2026 gives Koalicja Obywatelska 26% support, with Prawo i Sprawiedliwość second at 21%. Only these two parties reach double digits. Konfederacja places third at 8%, followed by Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (6%) and Nowa Lewica (5%), all clearing the 5% threshold for single parties to enter the Sejm. The poll used a mix-mode method (telephone and online) on a nationally representative sample of 812 adult residents of Poland.

Morawiecki's party falls short

Rozwój Plus, the association founded by former prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki (2017–2023), polled 4%, below the 5% Sejm threshold but above the 3% mark that entitles a party to annual state subventions. Razem (2%), PSL (2%), Polska 2050 (1%) and other groupings (1%) all fall below the funding threshold. Rzeczpospolita notes that compared with the 2023 election results, there has been a mass exodus of voters from the parties that formed the former Trzecia Droga coalition, and PiS support has dropped by roughly 40%.

A quarter of voters adrift

The figure drawing the most attention is the 25% of respondents who said they do not know whom they would vote for, nearly equal to KO's leading score. Dr. Adam Czarnecki, vice president of ARC Rynek i Opinia, told Rzeczpospolita that the high level of indecision reflects uncertainty among voters on both the right and the political centre.

For former PiS supporters, the choice between the mother party and Mateusz Morawiecki's movement is becoming difficult. There are also many 'orphans' after Polska 2050 who do not want to vote for the party currently led by Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz and do not really know which party to back in the next elections.

Czarnecki added that support for Rozwój Plus is not as high as other polls have suggested, and that PiS still maintains relatively high backing. He noted that many PiS voters see Rozwój Plus as a splinter group, while centrist voters remember Morawiecki's time as prime minister and are reluctant to support his current formation.

A second poll tells a different story

A separate survey by Opinia24, cited by Do Rzeczy, paints a different picture. It gives KO 30.3%, PiS 17.2%, and Konfederacja 15.3%. In that poll, Konfederacja Korony Polskiej reaches 9%, Nowa Lewica 7%, and Rozwój Plus 5.3%, clearing the Sejm threshold. Below it sit Razem (4.8%), Polska 2050 (1.3%) and PSL (1.1%).

What comes next

Parliamentary elections are expected in October 2027. NaTemat.pl reports that the average across six previous polls gives Rozwój Plus 6.1% support, enough for Sejm seats and a sixth-place position on the political scene. In four of those six polls the party exceeded the electoral threshold, while in two it did not. The wide gap between individual surveys, combined with the 25% undecided share, points to an electorate that remains in flux more than a year before the vote.