Koalicja Obywatelska leads Polish poll at 28.1% as Partia Razem gains 3 points

Survey results and top party standings

An opinion poll conducted by IBRiS for the Rzeczpospolita daily on 21 and 22 August 2026 surveyed 1,067 eligible voters on their preferences for the Sejm and Senate if elections were held this coming Sunday. Koalicja Obywatelska maintains the top position in voter backing with 28.1%, which marks a decline of 2.0 percentage points compared to late July. Prawo i Sprawiedliwość placed second with 18.1% of declarations, registering an increase of 0.8 percentage points over the same monthly interval. Konfederacja defended its third-place position on the national stage, collecting 13.2% of voter preferences, up by 0.9 percentage points. Declared participation among respondents indicated a projected electoral turnout of 55.8%.

Performance of middle and splinter groupings

The survey registered shifts across smaller formations and political splinters on both sides of the political spectrum. Backing for Grzegorz Braun and the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej dropped to 8.8%, representing a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from July. Lewica secured 6.6% in the August poll, sliding by 0.4 percentage points compared to the prior survey. Rozwój Plus, the political group associated with former prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki, drew 6.4% of responses, recording a drop of 1.0 percentage point. Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe gathered 3.5% of responses, up 0.7 percentage points, while Polska 2050 recorded 0.8% support, with both parties remaining below the statutory threshold required for parliamentary representation.

Growth and city presence for Partia Razem

Partia Razem achieved the largest gain of any political party in the survey, adding 3.0 percentage points since July to reach 4.6% support. This result brings the left-wing formation led by Adrian Zandberg and Aleksandra Owca closer to the 5% threshold necessary to enter the Sejm. The upward movement aligns with a recently published poll by CBOS, which measured backing for Razem at 4.4% following the summer period. Political analyst Szymon Ossowski pointed to the party's active local campaigning in urban centers, including opposition to municipal leadership in Poznań and a visible candidacy in Kraków, when explaining the demographic appeal among younger voters.

This party actually operates in big cities; this can be seen in Poznań, where Razem is very critical of the city authorities, and it is also visible in Kraków, where it has a visible candidate in the presidential election. Razem attracts young people, just like Confederation on the right. However, at this level of support, you have to remember about the statistical error; the percentage increase is large, but in points it is close to the margin of error.

Coalition hurdles and legislative arithmetic

The survey figures suggest that neither the ruling bloc nor the opposition can secure an outright parliamentary majority without multi-party agreements. The combination of a lower score for Koalicja Obywatelska and the dispersion of votes across smaller factions complicates the arithmetic needed to build a viable governing coalition. While Konfederacja and Razem gained ground among younger voter segments, traditional coalition partners such as PSL and Polska 2050 face low numbers that threaten their presence in parliament. These shifts across the political spectrum leave the potential composition of a future administration dependent on volatile margins near the statutory entry threshold.