Israel's election leaves no clear path to a majority as Likud leads early projections

Early count and projections

Israelis voted on Tuesday, 27 October, and the result remains unsettled. With more than half of the ballots counted, The Times of Israel projected Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc at 56 seats and Gadi Eisenkot's alliance at 49, and neither is likely to secure a clear path to a governing majority. Israeli Channels 12 and 13 projected Likud at an estimated 27 seats and Eisenkot's Yashar party at 21, which would give Likud a clear lead over all other parties. Netanyahu told supporters at Likud headquarters in West Jerusalem that the 'true results' were one or two days away. Israel's Central Elections Committee put turnout at around 77.7 per cent, which The Independent described as the highest in decades.

Likud27

Yashar (Eisenkot)21

Likud

27 seats

Yashar (Eisenkot)

21 seats

Data from the article text

Arab-led parties in the kingmaker role

With the count still incomplete, Arab-led parties hold around 18 seats, nearly double the 10 they won at the last vote, according to The Independent. Those parties could push a struggling opposition bloc over the 61-seat threshold in the 120-seat Knesset, giving them leverage to press demands on rights for Arab communities and a pathway to Palestinian statehood. Netanyahu has made clear he would not form a coalition with them, a step that would jeopardise his partnership with far-right settler groups such as Itamar Ben Gvir's. At the Joint List headquarters in Nazareth, jubilation followed news that the party could win as many as 12 seats.

“We refuse the occupation and racism, and we will remain here.”

Joint List candidate Faten Gattas made the party's position plain after the early results came in.

Netanyahu's case for another term

Netanyahu argued that a right-wing government must be formed to secure Israel's long-term safety and that it cannot rely on Arab parties 'that are against our existence'. Speaking in Jerusalem, he listed what he called the achievements of his term since 2022. He said Israel had eliminated Mohammed Deif, Ismail Haniyeh, Yahya Sinwar, Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and he pointed to security zones inside Gaza, in Lebanon and in Syria.

“We worked wonders that changed the face of the Middle East.”

Netanyahu also said Israel had a historical opportunity, together with US President Donald Trump, to remove the Iranian threat once and for all. Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli ambassador who served as consul general in New York City, said the party with the most seats may have to strike an uncomfortable coalition deal to govern, though opposition voters would not want a deal with Netanyahu's bloc. Marwan Bishara, Al Jazeera's senior political analyst, said Netanyahu tried to put on a 'brave face' about his party's prospects.

Regional stakes

The New York Times reported that few in the Middle East expect a turning point in relations with Israel, and analysts expect the outcome to leave Israel's security doctrine largely intact. That doctrine, hardened since the Hamas-led attacks of 7 October 2023, includes crippling Iran, occupying areas of Lebanon and Syria, and often favouring military force over diplomacy. Irish Times columnist Michael McDowell cited US media reports that Netanyahu had sought a pre-election military action against Iran, which he said the Israel Defense Forces apparently declined to join. McDowell also argued that such an attack could have pushed oil and gas prices higher, complicating Donald Trump's efforts to retain control of Congress in the midterm elections. He wrote that there is every reason to suspect further military attacks on Iran could follow the elections if both leaders keep power.

What comes next

Forming a coalition in Israel is expected to be a difficult and unpredictable process, given the radical proportionality of the electoral system, according to McDowell. Netanyahu says the true results will arrive in one or two days. McDowell framed the choice facing voters as one between a government with right-wing allies and a Knesset open to the two-state solution favoured by the great majority of UN member states.