Netanyahu's campaign pitch

Benjamin Netanyahu has cast the 27 October election as a choice between his Likud and a left-wing and Arab bloc. In an interview with Israel National News, he said Likud was level with Yashar, the party of former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, in the polls, and that coalition talks would be extremely difficult. He told right-wing voters that staying home would help the left and Arab parties, which he said would turn out in far higher numbers. He warned that a centre-left government backed by Mansour Abbas and Ahmed Tibi would be a disaster like the 1990s Oslo accords, but on steroids. He also urged voters not to waste their ballots on smaller right-wing parties such as Pueblo de Israel, led by Ofel Winter, which may not clear the 3.5% threshold.

Overthrowing the Iranian regime

On Wednesday, 21 October, Netanyahu told an Israel Defense Forces officer graduation ceremony that Iran posed an existential threat. He said Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had decided to follow his father's footsteps and try once again to develop the bombs of death. In remarks reported by the Washington Post, he said:

“And therefore, there is only one way to remove this threat once and for all: overthrow the regime in Iran”

Netanyahu describes overthrowing Iran's government as Israel's primary objective, even as he faces declining support in the polls. Analysts say Israel has the firepower to inflict serious damage on Iran but lacks a clear strategy for turning military gains into regime change. Urban Coningham of the Royal United Services Institute said Israel could again establish air superiority and strike Iranian targets. Air strikes alone are unlikely to topple the government, the analysts said.

Strike plans and US restraint

The New York Times reported on 21 October, citing US officials, that the US and Israeli militaries have developed specific plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the American midterm elections. Targets would likely include Iran's energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and its missile and drone arsenal. Officials argue that one more large round of attacks could push Iran's economy over the brink, though the first phase between February and April drove up energy prices and inflation. Deutsche Welle, citing the Financial Times, reported that Netanyahu prepared a plan for large-scale strikes about ten days before the report but did not proceed because of opposition from Donald Trump. Trump has publicly said there will be no attacks ahead of the midterms. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth visited Israel on 19 October and met Netanyahu at Ovda Air Base, according to the prime minister's international spokesman Doron Spielman.

Government and opposition sparring

Defence Minister Israel Katz said critics of the prime minister's warnings would share responsibility for any future attack on Israel. His office said the army is prepared for preventive and defensive action against Iran and its allies and can act immediately. Opposition leader Yair Lapid called Katz's remarks hysterical and a gift to Israel's enemies, saying no concrete threats had been detected and no larger military deployment had taken place. Yair Golan, leader of the left-wing Democrats, warned that military campaigns could be ordered 'for political purposes' in the days before the vote.

What comes after the vote

An Irish Independent explainer reports that regional policymakers and analysts expect the election to change the leader but not the strategy, with Iran remaining Israel's chief adversary. Aviv Bushinsky, a former adviser to Netanyahu, said:

“If Netanyahu is elected, he'll do whatever he thinks he wants to do”

He added that the wars against Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah would continue. Jonathan Rynhold of Bar-Ilan University called an Iran attack before the election very unlikely, but said keeping the threat in headlines could benefit Netanyahu by shifting debate away from the ultra-Orthodox draft dispute.