The 27 October election is widely seen as a referendum on Benjamin Netanyahu, who has led Israel for nearly 19 of the past 30 years and faces corruption cases. Polls suggest many Israelis want him replaced.
Both the Netanyahu-aligned and anti-Netanyahu blocs are projected to fall short of the 61 seats needed in the 120-seat Knesset. Projections for the Arab parties range from about 13 to around 15 seats, depending on the source.
Eisenkot has ruled out a government with Arab parties, and Bennett says the next government will not include them. Only the centre-left Democrats have not ruled out such a coalition.
Opposition parties are reportedly weighing a vote after the new Knesset convenes on 10 November to replace the Speaker and the head of the Arrangements Committee. The Arab parties want a freeze or cutback in building demolitions in Arab communities.
Opposition priorities include a state commission of inquiry into the 7 October 2023 attacks and ending the ultra-Orthodox military exemption. Israel's ministry of defence reports up to 30,000 people wounded.
Israelis vote on Tuesday, 27 October, and the contest is largely seen as a referendum on Benjamin Netanyahu. Voters will weigh whether he is responsible for failures that preceded the Hamas attack of 7 October 2023, or deserves credit for the military response that followed. His long-running corruption cases are also part of the debate. Polls suggest many Israelis want him replaced after nearly 19 of the past 30 years in office. His main challengers are former military chief Gadi Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett, who has formed a joint ticket with Yair Lapid, the current opposition leader.
On many security questions the differences between the leading candidates are small. Mairav Zonszein of the International Crisis Group argues that opposition politicians have tacked to the right during wars as a way to criticise Netanyahu, and that the political consensus on the Palestinian issue has never been more united. Eisenkot has pledged that within 18 months of taking office, Hamas will no longer rule the Gaza Strip. The clearest difference between the camps concerns Gaza itself, where Israeli forces control about 70 percent of the strip a year after a ceasefire declared by US President Donald Trump.
“As long as Benjamin Netanyahu is in power, Hamas will remain in power.”
The Knesset has 120 seats, and a prime minister needs at least 61 to govern. Polls show the Netanyahu-aligned bloc and the anti-Netanyahu opposition both falling short of that majority. Estimates for the two Arab parties, the Joint List and Ra'am, differ by source: about 13 seats in one projection, about 14 in another, and around 15 between them in a third. Eisenkot has ruled out forming a government with Arab parties. Bennett has said the next government will not include them, citing national security concerns. Only the centre-left Democrats have not ruled out such a coalition, according to the reporting.
If no bloc reaches a majority, opposition parties are reportedly discussing a second route to power. According to Israeli media reports, they are considering a deal with the Arab parties to take control of the Knesset agenda before a new government is formed. The first step would be a vote after the new Knesset convenes on 10 November to replace the Knesset Speaker and the head of the Knesset Arrangements Committee. In return, the Arab parties are seeking a freeze, or at least a significant cutback, in the demolition of buildings in Arab communities, which the government deems illegal. Publicly, the opposition still says it is aiming for an outright majority.
The opposition's priorities include a state commission of inquiry into the government's failures around the 7 October attacks and an end to the military service exemption enjoyed by most ultra-Orthodox men. Dahlia Scheindlin, writing in the Guardian, argues that simply ousting Netanyahu would not be enough to address Israel's deeper problems. Israel's ministry of defence has said up to 30,000 people have been wounded in the war. Scheindlin also points to strained social services and a shortage of psychiatrists. Netanyahu has said Israel will not rebuild Gaza or withdraw its troops until Hamas is fully disarmed.
Pollar is free and carries no ads in the text. Its members keep it going.
Support PollarElections · Tel Aviv
Israelis vote on Tuesday, 27 October, in a contest widely framed as a referendum on Benjamin Netanyahu. Polls point to neither bloc reaching the 61 seats needed, which leaves the Arab parties as a possible deciding factor.
AI text based on reports by New Statesman, The Irish Times, Washington Post and other publishers. Published .