ANC drops to 31.7% in South Africa local elections, its worst result since 1994

A weaker ANC and a crowded field

The African National Congress (ANC), the party of Nelson Mandela that has led South Africa since 1994, had 31.7% of the national vote on Friday, 6 November, with 88% of ballots counted. That is almost 14 percentage points below its 2021 local election result, and the party is heading for its lowest national score ever, according to the electoral commission figures reported that day. The municipal vote was held on Wednesday, 4 November, and counting ran through Thursday and Friday. The Democratic Alliance (DA), the ANC's partner in the national unity government formed after the 2024 general election, stood at 24.1% at the same stage. The election commission estimated turnout at 54.5% of registered voters, up from 46% five years ago. The ANC is still expected to finish as the largest party nationally, but more than a hundred municipalities will have a winner without enough votes to govern alone.

Johannesburg and Cape Town

In Johannesburg, the commercial capital with 4.8 million people, the DA led with 40% when just over half the votes had been counted, ahead of the ANC on 17.5% and ActionSA on 15.5%. The campaign there was shaped by regular water and power cuts, uncollected rubbish and potholes. The city has seen 10 changes of mayor in the last decade and has admitted a 220bn rand (£9.9bn) infrastructure spending backlog. Helen Zille, the 75-year-old former Cape Town mayor who led the DA campaign in the city, is a central figure in the count. ActionSA leader Herman Mashaba has pledged never to work with Zille, whom he has called racist, a charge she vehemently denies. The ANC currently leads Johannesburg's coalition, so the coalition talks there will be closely watched.

In Cape Town, DA leader and mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis claimed victory by midday on Thursday, 5 November. With 65% of votes counted he had 60.59%, while the CSIR projected a final score of 56%. Cape Town is the only one of the eight biggest cities where a single party is heading for an absolute majority. The DA is provisionally ahead in six of the eight metros, including Johannesburg and Pretoria, but it will need coalitions to govern most of them. In Durban and Pretoria the ANC was expected to finish third.

201626.9%

202121.66%

2026 (partial count)24.22%

2016

26.9 %

2021

21.66 %

2026 (partial count)

24.22 %

Data from the article text

Causes and the pressure on the ANC

High unemployment, crime, corruption and poor local service delivery have all pushed voters away from the party. The ANC is projected to lose its status as the biggest party in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, where coalition negotiations have begun behind closed doors. Umkhonto we Sizwe (MK), the breakaway party created in late 2023 by former president Jacob Zuma, took 9.3% nationally, compared with 14.5% in the 2024 general election. Sanet Solomon, a professor of political science and governance at the University of the Free State, told AFP that one of the main reasons the ANC is losing votes is the rise of parties such as MK. She also named the delivery of basic public services, such as water and the state of roads, as one of the main problems to have emerged.

Coalitions and the succession question

Final results are expected to be announced on Sunday, 8 November. Senior figures in the key parties say they would talk with almost anyone, while keeping their negotiating strategies under wraps. The ANC first fell below half of the vote in the 2024 general election, which forced it into a government of national unity with the DA and eight other parties. Its result is also being watched ahead of a party congress due in about a year, which will choose a successor to President Cyril Ramaphosa, who cannot stand again. No clear favourite has emerged for that contest.