Israel's election deadlocks as neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot reaches the 61-seat majority

Deadlock after Tuesday's vote

Israelis voted on Tuesday, 27 October, in the first election since the Hamas-led attacks of 7 October 2023. With more than half the votes counted, neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his centre-right challenger Gadi Eisenkot had the majority needed to form a government. The 61-seat majority is required in the 120-seat Parliament, and Netanyahu's alliance also looks set to fall short of it. Israelis were bracing for perhaps weeks of political uncertainty, and final results could come as early as Thursday evening, 29 October, though no clear winner is expected.

Arab parties in the spotlight

Turnout among Arab voters, who make up about 20 percent of Israeli citizens, looks set to give Arab parties their largest vote totals in generations, possibly since Israel's establishment 78 years ago. Raam and the Joint List alliance could together win as many as 19 seats, compared with the 10 seats Arab parties hold in the outgoing Parliament. Netanyahu warned supporters that Arabs were 'trying to steal the election', although electoral officials said there were no reports of widespread irregularities. He also warned against a 'dangerous government' that might include Arab parties, whose constituents make up 20% of Israel's population.

Coalition arithmetic

Eisenkot largely declined to say whether he would partner with Arab parties if necessary to topple the Netanyahu government. He said none of them met his conditions as potential allies. Without their support, his alliance would almost certainly fall short of 61 seats. Politico reports that the possibility of Jewish and Arab parties teaming up to unseat Netanyahu is almost unthinkable for many, and that the debate over the identity of the nation founded as a state for the Jewish people is being renewed.

Reaction in Washington

In Washington, factions in the administration and both parties in Congress had hoped the Israeli opposition would prevail and begin to reverse years of worsening relations. Despite vociferous support from President Donald Trump for Netanyahu, a former Trump administration official, speaking anonymously, described 'Netanyahu fatigue' in the capital. The official said an opposition government could stop the bleeding by governing Israel in a less provocative way.