New Zealand votes Saturday as Labour leads latest poll but Opportunity Party may decide government

A close race on living costs

New Zealanders vote on Saturday, 7 November, in an election that Bloomberg Business describes as too close to call. The contest has become a referendum on the centre-right government's struggle to bring down living costs and revive economic growth. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon leads a National-led coalition with the libertarian ACT party and Winston Peters' New Zealand First, and it wants to stay in office. The opposition Labour party, led by former prime minister Chris Hipkins, would make the result the first one-term government in nearly 50 years, according to the Irish Independent. Campaign issues include inflation, the cost of living, health care, the state of the economy and unemployment.

What the polls show

The latest survey cited by Adnkronos, which attributes it to Infrastructure New Zealand, puts Labour on 30.7% and National on 26.4%. Diário de Notícias reports the same two figures from a study by The Post and Freshwater Strategy. Neither the left nor the right is expected to win a majority alone, and the Irish Independent says the results are close enough that neither grouping is clearly ahead. Adnkronos puts unemployment at 5.7%, the highest level in 11 years, while Diário de Notícias puts it at 11%. Diário de Notícias also says frustration over rising living costs and years of economic stagnation is pushing voters away from the two traditional parties.

Labour30.7%

National26.4%

Labour

30.7 %

National

26.4 %

Data from the article text

The Opportunity Party and the kingmaker question

Qiulae Wong, who is 38, worked as a sustainable-business consultant and entered politics about a year ago after answering an advertisement for a party leader, according to Adnkronos and newsORF, which dates the application to August 2025. Her Opportunity Party has never won a seat in Parliament, and it proposes a land tax and a universal basic income while saying it can work with either bloc. Adnkronos credits the party with 5.1%, just above the 5% threshold, while newsORF cites 1News Verian and RNZ-Reid Research polls showing six to seven percent. Luxon has ruled out an agreement with the party, which could complicate forming a majority if neither bloc reaches 61 of the 120 seats.

How the result would be decided

New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional system in which each voter casts two votes, one for an electorate candidate and one for a party. Parliament has 120 seats, with 71 electorate seats and 49 list seats filled in proportion to the overall party vote. Advance voting opened on 26 October, polls close at 7 p.m. on Saturday (0600 GMT), and official results, including overseas votes, are due on 27 November.

Coalition talks could take weeks. In 2023 it took 41 days for National, ACT and New Zealand First to sign an agreement, and the Irish Independent says a similar timeline could happen again. The current coalition has said it is prepared to work together again, while on the left Labour, the Greens and Te Pati Maori could join forces.

Issues on the campaign trail

NewsORF reports that Luxon is campaigning on early signs of economic recovery after a long slump, while Hipkins accuses him of failure and is pushing measures to lower living costs. Health care and unemployment also feature in the debate. Luxon won the 2023 election on economic promises, which makes the economy a direct test of his record. Hipkins succeeded Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern in 2023 and now leads the Labour opposition.