ARD poll: AfD hits record 28% as Union slumps to 21%, government satisfaction at 13%

Polling reversal

The ARD-Deutschlandtrend survey by Infratest dimap, conducted among 1,297 eligible voters from Monday to Wednesday this week, shows the AfD at 28 percent, up one point from July and the highest value ever recorded for the party in the series. The CDU/CSU dropped one point to 21 percent, its weakest showing since November 2021 and the fifth consecutive monthly decline. The seven-point gap between the two is the largest measured in any Deutschlandtrend poll. In the February 2025 federal election, the positions were reversed: the Union took 28.5 percent and the AfD 20.8 percent.

Other parties stagnant

The remaining parties held unchanged from the previous month: the Greens at 15 percent, the SPD at 12, the Left at 11, and the FDP at 4, which would fail to clear the 5 percent Bundestag threshold. Other parties combined reach 9 percent. The findings are consistent across pollsters: Forsa and Insa both show the AfD at 28 and the Union at 21, YouGov has 27 to 20, and Allensbach reports a narrower gap of 26.5 to 24. Infratest dimap gives a margin of error of two to three percentage points.

Government satisfaction near floor

Only 13 percent of respondents are satisfied with the federal government's work, while 85 percent express dissatisfaction. Chancellor Friedrich Merz fares marginally better on a personal level, with 14 percent satisfied and 84 percent dissatisfied. A cabinet reshuffle by Merz did not shift perceptions: 57 percent expect the government to work just as poorly as before, 11 percent expect it to worsen, and only 12 percent anticipate improvement. Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt (CSU) was the sole figure to gain ground, with satisfaction rising 6 points to 28 percent.

Opening toward AfD cooperation

Attitudes toward cooperating with the AfD have shifted. The proportion of respondents who would exclude any cooperation fell 4 points from June to 37 percent. Thirty-two percent prefer deciding case by case, up 1 point, and 27 percent actively support seeking cooperation, up 3 points. Among Union supporters, 48 percent favor a case-by-case approach while 44 percent reject cooperation outright. AfD backers overwhelmingly favor cooperation at 84 percent. Supporters of the Greens (77 percent), the Left (74 percent), and the SPD (61 percent) remain opposed. In eastern Germany, where the AfD holds its strongholds, 38 percent want the party treated like any other, roughly matching the AfD's support level in the region.

Migration and border controls

Despite 59 percent of respondents favoring a European approach to migration policy, down 2 points from January 2025, 71 percent support extending German border controls beyond September. Twenty-four percent oppose the extension. The controls were first introduced by the previous coalition government in 2024 and have been extended three times, most recently in February through mid-September. Dobrindt reaffirmed the government's commitment to maintaining "flexible and adapted internal border controls." Support for extension spans AfD voters (94 percent), Union voters (77 percent), and SPD voters (74 percent), while supporters of the Left (35 percent) and Greens (33 percent) back it at only about a third. Half of respondents support plans for deportation centers outside the EU.

More than half the population (55 percent, up 7 points from December 2024) wants fundamental change. State elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled for September, with the AfD leading polls in both states.