Morning Brief, Monday 19 October

Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that Volodymyr Zelenskyy does not want to end the war with Russia and probably never did. He also signed an executive order waiving broad new sanctions mandated by legislation named for Lindsey Graham, and he temporarily waived sanctions on Russian diesel so supplies could enter global markets before the 3 November midterm elections.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Bloomberg that steps had been taken to persuade Ukraine to capitulate, though he said he did not think that was the goal of US allies. He criticised limits on Starlink, saying the system stops working above 161 km/h even though it can operate above 400 km/h, and said the United States sends only twelve Patriot missiles a month, a quarter of the level under Joe Biden.

Kyiv offered a bargain. Volodymyr Zelenskyy proposed that Ukraine stop attacking Russian refineries, which Donald Trump says raise diesel prices, if Washington speeds Patriot deliveries to protect Ukrainian infrastructure. He also told NBC that the United States had resumed intelligence sharing after blocking it for some time, and warned what would follow if Washington sided with Moscow.

“If the United States will take the side of Russia, of course we will not prevail”

Emmanuel Macron addressed France after protests over living costs and schools drew about 550,000 people by the official count and more than 800,000 by the CGT union's estimate. The marches on 17 October ended in clashes, arson and looting in several cities, and the government reported 2,397 arrests nationwide, including 855 in Paris alone.

The president said prefects could act with mayors to protect cities, public buildings and businesses, including by banning certain gatherings. He promised punishment for rioters and looters, asked for full transparency on how security forces acted, and announced a crisis unit to provide urgent aid to people going through difficult moments.

“I've asked the government to provide all the lessons learned and to be able to anticipate it to make sure that this does not happen again”

Opposition leaders moved quickly. Bruno Retailleau asked Emmanuel Macron to declare a state of emergency and floated curfews, movement bans and house arrest for identified ringleaders. Jordan Bardella called the speech lamentable and cowardly, while Jean-Luc Mélenchon said the president had to end the wear and tear before events became uncontrollable.

Emmanuel Macron linked high fuel prices to the war in Iran and urged parties and unions to condemn violence. He also said the political argument should take place between parties rather than in the streets, ahead of a presidential election he placed about six months away.

Mark Carney confirmed that four Canadian service members died after a fire broke out on Saturday afternoon in a training area at Canadian Forces Base Wainwright in Alberta. The blaze spread beyond the training area as high winds pushed flames across the base fence into surrounding rural land, where military and civilian crews worked to protect homes and other structures.

“It is with deep sadness that I can confirm, at this time, that four service members have lost their lives and that their loved ones have been notified.”

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said 39 people were in hospital on Sunday and at least 19 were in critical condition. Mark Carney said helicopters moved casualties to Wainwright, Edmonton and Calgary, while Warren Thirsk of Edmonton's Royal Alexandra Hospital told CBC that the number of patients would overwhelm the city of Edmonton.

Officials have not confirmed the cause. The Defence ministry said the investigation continued and there was no indication of terrorist activity. Global News, citing military sources, reported that an explosion during a live-fire exercise may have started the blaze, while The Globe and Mail cited internal communications saying a smouldering grass fire became a wall of flames in high winds.

Mark Carney ordered flags on federal buildings lowered to half-mast and said the government would support the injured and their families. The Municipal District of Wainwright said crews were still actively managing the fire as of Sunday.

China's economy grew 4.5% year on year in the third quarter, the National Bureau of Statistics reported on Monday. The pace beat the 4.3% recorded in the second quarter but lagged the 5% of the first, leaving growth for the first nine months at 4.6% and within the government's full-year target range of 4.5% to 5%.

• Q15
• Q24.3
• Q34.5

Exports carried much of the load. Customs figures cited in the reports showed exports rose 21.3% in dollar terms over the first nine months, and the trade surplus reached about $938 billion. The export boom is feeding friction with trading partners, especially in Europe, where officials worry that cheap Chinese goods are squeezing domestic producers.

Home demand looked weaker. Retail sales rose 1.1% in September from a year earlier, fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% in the first nine months, and industrial production grew 5.5%. The property crisis remains the main drag, with falling home prices making households cautious, developers investing less and cities earning less from land-use sales (89aa9754-4ee6-a0d2-83f12fe9aabe).

Beijing introduced support measures in September, including cheaper borrowing for some firms and subsidies for home buyers. Western economists still question the official data because China has stopped publishing many narrow data sets that once helped outsiders check the figures, while independent estimates have often shown lower growth.

Student-led protests against Edi Rama's government entered a sixth day in Tirana on Sunday and turned violent outside the Education Ministry. Demonstrators threw stones, petrol bombs and fireworks, while police used tear gas, water cannon and rubber bullets after a calm opening hour under heavy police presence.

The counts rose through the day. ANSA reported 194 arrests across Albania, while later reporting put the number of injured at 65. Protesters also attacked the Socialist Party headquarters, smashing windows at the main entrance, and ANSA reported that a police station was set on fire next to a pre-trial detention prison.

Edi Rama refused to step down in a live Facebook address and said governments change through elections. He described the protests as driven by an outside hand, linked the threat to Iran, Russia and left-wing extremists in some reporting, and cast the unrest as a danger to Albania's effort to join the European Union.

“Albanians need to think very clearly: Do they want this, do they want that, or do they want the EU?”

The European Commission condemned violence in Tirana and other cities, while also welcoming the Albanian authorities' commitment to protect the right to protest. Students now list Edi Rama's resignation as their sole demand, and Albania remains among the Balkan states seeking EU membership by 2030.

Albertans vote on Monday, 19 October, in a non-binding referendum asking whether the province should remain in Canada or start the legal process for a future binding referendum on separation. Premier Danielle Smith initiated the vote after a judge halted a planned citizen referendum over constitutional concerns, and the ballot also includes nine other questions on immigration, services and voter identification.

A vote for the second option would not create an independent Alberta. It would open a legal path to a later binding vote, and any province trying to secede would have to negotiate with Ottawa, other provinces and Indigenous peoples living in and around Alberta. Some separatist organisers have used that distinction to ask voters to send Ottawa a message even if they do not support immediate independence.

Polls point to a large remain lead, though the reported figures differ. Some surveys put support for staying in Canada at about 70%, with independence at about 20% and 10% undecided. Another account says four out of five Albertans want the province to remain part of Canada.

Cory Morgan, founder of Pathway to Independence, said he would accept the result but keep campaigning. Prime Minister Mark Carney urged supporters of Canadian unity to vote, and both of Canada's largest political parties have spoken against separation.

“I would respect the will of the voters. If they've decided it's not time to go that route yet, then so be it.”