Morning Brief, Thursday 8 October

Russian forces launched 70 missiles and waves of drones across Ukraine, killing at least 26 people in 12 regions, according to Ukrainian officials. Prylouky took the heaviest blow when a missile hit an apartment block and killed 19 people, including five children. Ukrainian units said they intercepted 44 missiles and 117 Shahed drones, while Russia’s defence ministry said it targeted Ukrainian defence-industry and port infrastructure. Kyiv’s transport grid halted on the right bank after power failed, and emergency cuts spread as winter nears.

Israel marked the third anniversary of the 7 October 2023 Hamas attacks with memorials at about 400 locations, including the Supernova festival site, where relatives observed silence at 6:29am. Across the border, local medical officials said Israeli strikes killed five Palestinians in Gaza, where more than two million residents still face severe hardship and reconstruction has stalled. In Yemen, Houthi missile and drone strikes hit Saudi airports, killed three people and injured 36, while government forces and Houthi units fought around the Red Sea coast and Taiz.

The Black Sea added another front of risk after drone attacks struck commercial vessels off Bulgaria and Romania, sank ships and pushed Sofia to halt a search for missing sailors. Civilian infrastructure is no longer the backdrop to these wars; it has become one of their main instruments.

Bond markets delivered a blunt warning to France. Ten-year yields reached 4.9% after briefly touching 5.0%, while the spread over German debt widened to its highest level since 2011. France’s debt ratio has climbed to nearly 118% of GDP, and repeated deficits above 5% have made investors less patient with Paris. The pressure also reached banks, where senior debt risk premiums rose and dragged lenders into the sovereign argument. In America, the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% and the 30-year reached 5.7%, helping push the average 30-year mortgage rate to 7.49%.

Oil added the second squeeze. Brent climbed to $102 a barrel before settling near $100 after attacks on commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz raised shipping costs and fed inflation worries. Global stocks retreated from recent highs, with Asian and European indices falling as investors weighed higher energy costs, tighter credit and fresh central-bank caution. The International Energy Agency tried to calm the market by accelerating the release of roughly 100 million barrels of emergency oil stocks, with diesel taking priority.

This is how fiscal doubts travel: from bond auctions to bank shares, then into mortgages, fuel bills and election promises.

German prosecutors put August Hanning, the 80-year-old former head of the Federal Intelligence Service, in pretrial detention after accusing him of treasonous espionage, attempted treason and related offences. Investigators allege that Manfred Dankesreiter, a long-time aide, supplied roughly 2,000 classified files over 12 years, including BND operational records and intelligence on Iran and Russian military operations. Hanning’s lawyers denied that he passed information to Germany’s detriment or took payment, but the case has already forced the current BND president, Martin Jäger, to order an internal damage review.

Germany also faced a political breach in Saxony-Anhalt, where Tobias Rausch of Alternative for Germany won the presidency of the state parliament in a secret ballot. His 48 votes exceeded the combined seats of the AfD and Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, meaning lawmakers from elsewhere helped him across the line. Christian Democratic Union leaders had ordered abstentions, but the vote count exposed either indiscipline or mischief, and state Social Democrats ended exploratory coalition talks.

For Germany, the week has paired a Cold War-style intelligence alarm with a very modern parliamentary one, and both cut at the same old asset: allied trust.

Maricarmen Abascal, the 87-year-old Madrid tenant whose eviction had become a symbol of Spain’s housing crisis, died in hospital after being removed from her Retiro home on a stretcher. She had lived there for 70 years and had fought a steep rent rise through years of legal proceedings. Her death intensified protests that had already filled squares with tenant encampments and signs declaring solidarity with her. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez dissolved parliament after lawmakers rejected emergency decrees on evictions and lease renewals, setting a snap election for 29 November.

Spain’s largest unions then called a 24-hour general strike for 11 November, aligning labour groups with tenant organisations for a fight over rents rather than wages alone. The Bank of Spain estimates a housing deficit of about 750,000 homes, rising above 1m by 2028, while the Youth Council says average rent equals 98.7% of an average young worker’s monthly salary. That arithmetic explains why a housing protest can quickly become a broader economic revolt.

The government has approved revised housing decrees and tax-linked savings measures, while Madrid and Andalusia, both led by the People’s Party, are weighing legal challenges over property rights and regional powers. Her eviction has turned housing policy from a technical file into the ballot box’s front door.