Morning Brief, Monday 7 September

Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner reached Kyiv after three hours with Vladimir Putin in Moscow, giving Donald Trump's latest peace effort the look of real shuttle diplomacy rather than another Kremlin-only errand. In Kyiv they met Volodymyr Zelenskyy, then widened the table to include security advisers from Germany, France and the United Kingdom, with a broader follow-up meeting promised but not dated.

“We've had a very meaningful discussion, substantive, important, and we are very encouraged and we look forward to continuing this as long as it takes.”

The trip rested on a narrow 72-hour pause in strikes on the two capitals: Russia said it would not hit Kyiv, while Ukraine said it would not hit Moscow. That pause gave diplomats safer corridors, but it did not create a battlefield ceasefire. Russian strikes hit settlements in Zaporizhzhia oblast, where officials recorded 886 strikes in 24 hours, while Ukrainian drones caused a fire at a refinery in Ryazan and drew air-defence responses in Rostov. The hard terms barely moved. Moscow still demands control over Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson and a Ukrainian renunciation of NATO membership, positions Kyiv rejects. Volodymyr Zelenskyy asked for Patriot interceptors, security guarantees and a winter assistance package, then said territorial questions need a meeting of heads of state, something Putin has not accepted. The pause buys choreography, not peace, and choreography runs out quickly when the shelling resumes outside the camera frame.

Alternative for Germany won Saxony-Anhalt with about 44% of the vote, a result that doubled its past strength and crushed the Christian Democratic Union in a state it had governed since 2002. Projections put the AfD on 39 seats in the 83-seat Landtag, three short of an absolute majority, while the CDU sank to about 17.8% and failed to win a direct constituency in one count.

• AfD44
• CDU17.8
• SPD9
• Die Linke9
• Greens8.7
• BSW5.1
• FDP2.4

Alice Weidel claimed a governing mandate and demanded early federal elections, sharpening pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz even before coalition arithmetic in Magdeburg settles. Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD's state leader, has said he wants power without compromising core policies; mainstream parties still reject formal cooperation with a state branch classified by domestic intelligence as right-wing extremist.

“I hope there will be early federal elections and I hope the current chancellor will be replaced before Christmas.”

The result also stirred immediate street and institutional reaction. Jewish leaders warned that a far-right party had come within reach of governing a German state alone, while demonstrators gathered in Frankfurt, Berlin and Mainz to demand stronger action against the AfD. The firewall has held as a slogan; Saxony-Anhalt now tests whether it can hold as a method of government.

Oil markets opened higher after the United States and Iran exchanged fire around the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow route that normally carries roughly a fifth of global petroleum supply. United States Central Command struck three Iranian oil tankers after Iranian ballistic missiles were launched toward two United States Navy warships, while Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targeted three commercial tankers on what it called unauthorized routes through the strait.

• Brent96.8
• WTI92.14

The shipping signal looked worse than the price move. Kpler data showed an average of 10 commodity ships per day crossed the Strait of Hormuz over the previous 10 days, the lowest volume since May. Iran also said it would establish a restricted zone outside the strait, adding another layer of uncertainty for owners, insurers and refiners already watching each voyage more nervously. OPEC+ kept October output policy unchanged on Sunday, declining to offset the shock while members work through new quota arrangements. Brent rose to $96.80 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate reached $92.14, after gains of 7.8% and nearly 10% respectively over the previous week. Analysts expect constrained exports through the rest of 2026, with full throughput delayed into 2027 if the calibrated exchanges continue. The Strait has become both a military front and a price-setting machine, which is an expensive combination for everyone who buys fuel.

An Amazon Prime Air cargo aircraft overran a runway at Miami International Airport, crossed a roadway and hit vehicles before stopping in a field on the airport's northwest edge. Five people died and five were injured, while Miami-Dade Fire Rescue sent about 200 personnel to fight engine fires, contain a fuel leak and cut trapped victims from vehicles and the cockpit.

“At least five people have lost their lives, and five others are injured.”

Federal investigators from the National Transportation Safety Board and the Federal Aviation Administration opened an inquiry into why the 32-year-old Boeing 767-300 failed to stop on landing. The FAA imposed a full ground stop, then airport authorities reopened two of four runways by Sunday evening as airlines tried to rebuild schedules over the Labor Day weekend. Indonesia faced a very different transport shock. Authorities extended closures at eight airports, including Jakarta's Soekarno-Hatta, after Anak Krakatau pushed ash columns as high as 15,200 metres into the sky. The transport ministry said cancellations affected 170,000 passengers, up sharply from 22,000 the day before, while international links to Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Sydney and Doha were cancelled. A runway and a volcano have little in common, except that both can turn an efficient network into a waiting room in minutes.

Spanish Equality Minister Ana Redondo visited Ceuta 38 days after the 30 July border crossing, but a planned meeting with migrant women shifted location after protesters gathered outside the Government Delegation. Around 300 women now stay at La Hipica, while officials search for safer accommodation for girls and other vulnerable arrivals.

“It is our primary concern.”

The pressure reaches the courts and morgues as well as shelters. Prosecutors had registered 23 sexual-assault investigations by 31 August, involving nine minors among the victims and eight identified suspects. Rescue services recovered 72 bodies from the sea by 2 August after the crossing, and Ceuta's Institute of Legal Medicine had processed 79 bodies by 4 August.

• Current load1,100
• Contingency capacity90

Madrid and Ceuta also disagree on scale. Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska said 72,000 people crossed and about 2,000 remained; Ceuta President Juan Jesús Vivas estimated about 6,000 irregular migrants remain without formal identification. Child-care facilities hold roughly 1,100 unaccompanied minors, twelve times the statutory contingency capacity of 90, while the central government has announced a €25 million fund and planned transfers to mainland regions. Ceuta is now a border, a shelter system and a political argument all at once, and each part is overcrowded.