AfD leads polls ahead of Saxony-Anhalt election as rivals weigh minority coalition options
Polls ahead of the 6 September vote in Saxony-Anhalt place the AfD around 40% and the CDU at 23%, setting up complex negotiations over potential minority rule in Magdeburg.
Polling landscape ahead of the vote
Voters in Saxony-Anhalt will elect a new state parliament on 6 September 2026. A survey by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen of 1,053 voters shows Alternative for Germany (AfD), led by Ulrich Siegmund, leading with 40% of the vote. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) of Minister-President Sven Schulze follows with 23%. Die Linke registers 13%, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) stands at 9%, and the Greens reach 6%. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) each stand at 3%, falling short of the 5% threshold required to enter the state parliament. A separate Infratest dimap survey of approximately 1,500 voters places the AfD at 42% and the CDU at 22%.
- AfD
- 40 %
- CDU
- 23 %
- Die Linke
- 13 %
- SPD
- 9 %
- Grüne
- 6 %
- BSW
- 3 %
- FDP
- 3 %
- Others
- 3 %
Seat allocation and tactical voting
The AfD, classified by the state domestic intelligence service as confirmed right-wing extremist, aims to secure an absolute majority of seats to govern alone. Political scientist Benjamin Höhne notes that the AfD requires fewer votes to attain a seat majority if smaller parties fail to clear the 5% hurdle. Political scientist Werner Krause observes that tactical voting could shift support toward smaller parties to ensure they enter parliament, thereby increasing the total seats divided among competing factions. In the 2021 state election, the CDU took 37.1% against the AfD at 20.8%, but pollsters observe no comparable neck-and-neck dynamic this cycle because the AfD has maintained an extensive lead across surveys.
- CDU
- 37.1 %
- AfD
- 20.8 %
- Die Linke
- 11 %
- SPD
- 8.4 %
- FDP
- 6.4 %
- Grüne
- 5.9 %
- Others
- 10.4 %
Coalition dilemmas and minority models
All other parties with prospective representation in the Landtag have ruled out entering a formal coalition with the AfD. The current governing coalition of CDU, SPD, and FDP will not hold a majority if the FDP fails to enter parliament and polling numbers hold. One potential scenario is a CDU-led minority government alongside the SPD and Greens, sustained through issue-by-issue tolerance from Die Linke. However, senior CDU figures have voiced resistance to relying on Die Linke votes. Former CDU state minister Karl-Heinz Daehre rejected such reliance during campaign discussions.
We did not take to the streets in 1989 so that the Left would now return to power.
Nico Elsner, state leader of the Junge Union, proposed passing legislation with votes from the AfD instead of relying on the left, while maintaining opposition to a formal coalition.
A right thing does not become wrong just because the wrong people agree with it.
Voter sentiment and leadership ratings
Public sentiment regarding executive leadership diverges from party polling. A survey by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen indicates that 50% of respondents prefer a state government led by the CDU, compared to 35% who favor an AfD-led administration. Incumbent Minister-President Sven Schulze, who has held office for seven months, holds an approval rating of 30% satisfied against 46% dissatisfied. Government performance under the CDU received an average rating of minus 0.6 on an eleven-point scale, while the AfD opposition scored minus 0.9. Additionally, 31% of surveyed voters report that they remain undecided or have not chosen whether to participate.
