Evening Brief, Thursday 11 June

The United States and Iran traded strikes for a second night, turning April's ceasefire into a document with little practical force. US Central Command said it hit Iranian surveillance, communications and air-defence sites; Iranian state media reported explosions near Tehran and along the southern coast. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they then struck US-linked targets in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan, while Bahrain reported an 11-year-old girl injured by falling debris. Washington framed its action as self-defence; Tehran framed its reply as retaliation for US strikes.

Pete Hegseth chose the language of coercion rather than calm.

Iran's top military command declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to all vessels and warned ships not to attempt passage. US Central Command denied that commercial transit had stopped and rejected Iranian claims that US warships had been hit, leaving the world's most important energy chokepoint in the fog of war. Brent crude rose to $95.40 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate reached $92.63, while US crude inventories fell by 7.2 million barrels in the latest week.

The human cost also reached beyond the battlefield. Three Indian mariners were confirmed dead after US forces fired into the engine room of the Palau-flagged tanker Settebello, which Washington said had tried to move Iranian oil through the blockade. New Delhi protested, and the incident showed how quickly a naval squeeze can turn merchant crews into casualties of state policy. Castles rarely decide modern wars; this one may still decide how much trust is left in a truce that had little to spare.

The oil shock moved from shipping lanes into price indices. US consumer prices rose 4.2% in the year to May, the fastest pace since 2023, while core inflation reached 2.9%. Energy prices did most of the damage: gasoline jumped 40.5% from a year earlier, diesel rose 41% since the conflict began, and airfares climbed 26.7%. Donald Trump said the figures were "great" and predicted inflation would fall once the conflict ends, a brave forecast while missiles still fly and tankers still hesitate.

Europe moved from worry to action. The European Central Bank raised rates by a quarter point, taking the deposit rate to 2.25%, the main refinancing rate to 2.40% and the marginal lending rate to 2.65%. Eurozone inflation reached 3.2% in May, up from 3.0% in April, and the bank lifted its 2026 inflation forecast to 3%. The awkward part is growth: the eurozone contracted in the first quarter, so Christine Lagarde's institution is tightening into weakness rather than strength.

Markets treated the week as a supply shock with political teeth. Oil rose, equities slipped, and traders priced the cost of a war that central banks cannot end but must still counter. The Federal Reserve now faces the same dilemma, with inflation above target and voters already sour on prices. The lesson is blunt: when a chokepoint carries one-fifth of global oil and gas flows, monetary policy starts at sea before it reaches the committee room.

John Healey resigned as Britain's defence secretary after rejecting the military spending settlement offered by Keir Starmer's government. His letter said the Treasury had failed to fund the Defence Investment Plan at the pace needed for a more dangerous security climate. The government has promised to reach 3.5% of GDP on defence by 2035, but Healey said the plan moved too slowly, rising only to 2.6% next year and 2.68% in 2030.

The resignation gives Starmer a strategic problem and a Westminster problem at once. It makes him look squeezed between a Treasury that guards cash, armed forces that want faster repair, and allies who expect Europe to shoulder more of its own defence. The timing hurts: Britain has watched the US pivot away from Europe, Russian activity near British waters has drawn warnings, and the Gulf crisis has exposed gaps in readiness, including the Royal Navy's difficulty in deploying an advanced warship quickly.

Opposition leaders pounced, but the harder question sits inside Labour. If ministers cannot fund rearmament quickly after promising it, every strategic review becomes an exercise in polite fiction. Starmer can replace John Healey; replacing credibility with generals, NATO partners and his own backbenchers will take longer. His defence policy now begins not with a grand doctrine, but with a resignation letter pinned to the Treasury door.

Northern Ireland faced a second night of anti-immigrant violence after a knife attack in north Belfast. Police said Hadi Alodid, a 30-year-old Sudanese refugee, attacked Stephen Ogilvie with a kitchen knife on Monday, leaving him blinded in one eye and badly wounded. Alodid appeared in court charged with attempted murder and related offences, refused legal representation through an Arabic interpreter and was remanded in custody. Police have not identified a motive and said they do not believe the case was terrorism.

The backlash spread quickly and ugly. Masked rioters targeted homes believed to house immigrants, set properties and vehicles on fire, threw bricks and stones at police, and forced officers to deploy water cannon and armoured vehicles. On the second night alone, 12 officers were injured and 16 people were arrested; more than two dozen residents were left homeless. Public transport shut down in places, schools closed early, and Belfast businesses pulled down shutters before dusk.

Hilary Benn called the disorder by its name.

The victim's family asked that their grief not be used against immigrants, a humane plea that arrived in a city already measuring fear street by street. Ethnic minority residents described being stopped, questioned and intimidated, including nurses on their way to work. Anselme Shima, originally from Congo, said a decade of neighbourly life had been shaken in a single night. This time the spark was a crime; the test is whether leaders can stop punishment becoming collective.