Morning Brief, Thursday 28 May

Agents from the Guardia Civil's Unidad Central Operativa (UCO) entered the headquarters of Spain's ruling Socialist Party (PSOE) on Calle Ferraz in Madrid on Wednesday morning. They executed a court order to seize documents and electronic files, including emails of former organisational secretary Santos Cerdán and other senior officials. National Court Judge Santiago Pedraz is investigating an alleged plot to destabilise judicial processes affecting the party.

The operation coincided with a bitter Senate debate in which the opposition People's Party (PP) used its absolute majority to approve a motion reproaching Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's government. The motion, though non-binding, accused the executive of "inoperance" and failing to take responsibility over a cascade of corruption scandals. The Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) and Catalan Junts—whose votes are crucial for the government's survival—abstained rather than vote against the censure, signalling growing unease.

The National Court has also indicted former prime minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero in a separate influence-peddling case, deepening the political crisis.

A Bundibugyo-strain Ebola outbreak that began in Ituri province of DRC has now spread to Uganda, with up to 900 suspected cases and 220 deaths. The World Health Organization declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on 17 May and has since upgraded the risk to "very high" for both countries. No approved vaccines or treatments exist for this strain, which has a case fatality rate of 30-50%.

Only 7% of over 2,000 identified contacts have been traced, hampered by violence that has seen hospitals attacked and isolation tents torched. In response, the United States banned entry for non-citizens who recently visited DRC, Uganda, or South Sudan, while Canada imposed a 90-day entry ban and mandatory quarantines. Uganda itself closed its border with DRC on Wednesday.

The outbreak has prompted other countries like India and Jordan to impose restrictions, though the European Centre for Disease Control assesses the risk to Europe as "very low".

Rescue teams found five Lao nationals alive on a rocky ledge inside a flooded cave in Xaisomboun province on Wednesday afternoon, a week after they entered the abandoned gold mine. The men, who had been trapped by flash floods and a landslide on 19 or 20 May, were hungry but in good spirits, as shown in video released by rescuers.

More than 100 rescuers, including Thai divers and a Finnish specialist who participated in the 2018 Tham Luang cave rescue, battled narrow, muddy passages to reach the survivors located about 300 metres from the entrance. The operation drew comparisons to the dramatic 18-day effort that saved a Thai football team, though the Laos mine presents additional challenges with 60-centimetre-wide passages requiring crawling and diving.

Two other miners remain missing, and the extraction of the survivors is ongoing as night fell.

President Emmanuel Macron announced on Wednesday that Norway will join France's expanded nuclear deterrence doctrine, under which an attack on Norway could trigger a French nuclear response. The agreement, signed by Macron and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre in Paris, marks a historic shift for a country long reliant on the Atlantic alliance.

Norway becomes the latest European state—after Poland and Lithuania—to receive France's nuclear protection, which now extends to eight other countries including the UK, Germany, and the Netherlands. Støre stressed that NATO remains the cornerstone of deterrence, but that closer cooperation strengthens European security amid Russia's continued war in Ukraine and its nuclear rearmament.

France, which possesses 290 nuclear weapons, has sought to forge a more autonomous European defence since Britain's exit from the EU.

Germany's council of economic advisers slashed its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to just 0.5%, down from 0.9% projected last autumn. The revision, presented to Chancellor Friedrich Merz, blames the Iran war's disruption of Strait of Hormuz shipping, which has boosted energy costs and dampened consumption and investment.

In a risk scenario where energy prices stay elevated, growth could dwindle to 0.2%. The advisers also highlighted a structural challenge: social security contributions currently at 42% of gross wages could reach 50% by 2040, eroding disposable incomes by up to one percentage point of annual growth by 2035.

They urged health-system reforms, such as limiting fee-for-service payments and ending free co-insurance for spouses, to curb a spending rise that has outpaced outcomes. The public deficit is set to widen to 4.3% of GDP by 2027, and unemployment is expected to hit 6.4%, closing a bleak spring assessment for Europe's largest economy.