World·since 26 May·1,185 entries
The US under Trump: second term
US foreign policy under the Trump administration is shifting from multilateralism toward transactional bilateral bargaining, linking security commitments, economic access and territorial claims to bilateral concessions across theatres.
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This week23 entries
State of playtoday 08:52
Ukraine and Russia
Trump said on 28 October that preparations are under way for a trilateral meeting with Putin and Zelenskyy, per Bloomberg. No date or venue has been given. Kyiv has informally paused long-range strikes on Russian refineries after US pressure, expected to last at least until the 3 November midterms.
Putin told envoy Steve Witkoff that Moscow accepts technical talks after 10 November but rules out a ceasefire and any handover of occupied land. Washington is discussing sanctions relief for Dmitriev's investment fund. In Oleshky, a first aid convoy entered the occupied town and residents may leave until 14:00 on 30 October.
Allies and Security
The Pentagon has asked the Baltic states and other NATO members to tone down public warnings about Russia, Reuters reports, while planners review US posture in Europe. Eleven EU countries pledged to release 42.6 million barrels of oil by end-January 2027 after Trump pressed Europe.
Trade Pressure
Trump called a closer Canada-EU arrangement a possible "hostile act" and threatened European tariffs, while Carney and the EU's top official pushed for Canada to become the bloc's first associate member. US officials plan about 10% tariff relief for automakers investing in the US, and USTR Greer warned the EIB's €3.4 billion Airbus loan could breach the aircraft truce.
The test is whether Lavrov's Atlanta visit on 30 and 31 October yields a US move on Dmitriev's fund before the 10 November talks.
What comes next
- todayTariff exemptions on some Canadian imports take effect
- todayLavrov at G20 foreign ministers' talks in Atlanta (30-31 October)
- in 4 daysUS midterm elections for House and Senate
- in 11 daysEarliest date for resumed technical talks with Kyiv and Washington, possibly in Abu Dhabi
Open questions
- Will the US lift sanctions on Dmitriev's Russian Direct Investment Fund before the 10 November talks?
- Will the US go ahead with raising car tariffs on EU vehicles from 15% to 25%, and how will the Commission respond?
Who is who8
Donald Trump US President
Says a trilateral meeting with Putin and Zelenskyy is being prepared, called the EU-Canada associate idea "laughable" and threatened to halt trade with Europe, and pressed Europe to join an oil stock release.
30 Oct
Volodymyr Zelenskyy Ukrainian President
Backs trilateral talks, and Kyiv has informally paused refinery strikes under US pressure, per the WSJ.
30 Oct
US special envoys US negotiators on Russia and Ukraine
Witkoff met Putin in St Petersburg on 21 October and heard Russia agree in principle to resume technical talks after 10 November.
26 Oct
EU leaders European Council members
Reject lifting Russia sanctions while the war continues, and eleven member states pledged a 42.6 million barrel oil release after US pressure.
30 Oct
Vladimir Putin Russian President
Ready to resume technical talks toward a final peace deal but rejects a ceasefire and any territorial concessions.
28 Oct
Jamieson Greer US Trade Representative
Warned on 27 October that a €3.4 billion EIB loan to Airbus endangers the US-EU civil aircraft financing agreement and the tariff truce.
28 Oct
Brett Sylvia Lt. Gen., former Joint Staff strategy chief
Removed by the Pentagon on 29 October with no reason given and no successor named.
30 Oct
Sergei Lavrov Russian Foreign Minister
Leads Russia's delegation to G20 foreign ministers' talks in Atlanta on 30 and 31 October.
29 Oct
Numbers
Trump approval rating (BBC)
37→37 %
12/10 → 13/10 · pollar.news
US visas revoked since January 2025 (State Department)
175,000→300,000 visas
10/08 → 20/10 · pollar.news
Promises10
White Housekept
Russia and Ukraine will halt military action in Oleshky from 29 October to allow aid and civilian evacuation.
23 Oct · due 29 Oct · pollar.news
US officialsopen
The US will launch a tariff-relief programme for automakers investing in US production, with a rate of about 10%.
29 Oct
Eleven EU countriesopen
France, Germany, Italy and eight other EU countries will release 42.6 million barrels of oil, including 20.5 million of diesel, by end-January 2027.
29 Oct · due 31 Jan 2027 · lemonde.fr
Donald Trumpopen
Plywood, paper products, machinery and seaweed will come off the 50% tariff list on Canadian goods from 30 October.
24 Oct · due 30 Oct · pollar.news
Vladimir Putinopen
Russia will resume technical-level talks with Ukraine and the US after 10 November.
21 Oct · after 10 November 2026 · apnews.com
Donald Trumpopen
Trump will consider letting Ukrainians keep Temporary Protected Status until the war ends.
19 Oct · reuters.com
Marco Rubioopen
The administration will decide within 60 days whether to impose the suspended Russia sanctions and tariffs.
18 Oct · due 17 Dec · reuters.com
Donald Trumpopen
Taiwan will buy 30% of the planned Alaska LNG pipeline gas for 20 years and invest $4.4 billion.
14 Oct · pollar.news
Donald Trumpopen
Oil, gas and mineral exploration in Greenland will start soon.
14 Oct · soon, no timeline given · pollar.news
Donald Trumpopen
Russia will supply 4.8 million tonnes of diesel under the arrangement announced after the Putin call.
10 Oct · pollar.news
Chronicle1,185 entries since 26 May
26 October – 1 November19 entries
A first humanitarian convoy set off overnight for Russian-occupied Oleshky near Kherson, where residents may leave until 14:00 on 30 October. Two people, one a sapper, were killed clearing access roads, in the first aid delivery under the truce.
US officials asked Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and other NATO countries to tone down rhetoric on the Russian threat, Reuters reported on 30 October, as Washington pushes to end the Ukraine war and Pentagon planners weigh a substantial cut in US troops in Europe.
Kyiv has informally halted long-range strikes on Russian oil refineries after weeks of pressure from Washington, the Wall Street Journal reported. The pause is expected to last at least until the 3 November US midterm elections.
France, Germany, Italy and eight other EU countries pledged on 29 October to release 42.6 million barrels by end-January 2027, including 20.5 million of diesel, Le Monde reported. The move followed a G7 agreement on a 100 million barrel release that Trump pressed Europe to join.
US officials told Audi the administration plans a tariff-relief programme for automakers making substantial US investments, Reuters reported on 29 October. Audi sought 7.5% instead of the current 15%; about 10% is expected, tying market access to US production.
The Pentagon removed Lt. Gen. Brett Sylvia, director of strategy, plans and policy on the Joint Staff, giving no reason and naming no successor. The removal comes as Trump weighs renewed strikes on Iran after the 3 November midterm elections.
Flávio Bolsonaro, who lost Brazil's runoff to Lula, landed in Miami on a chartered flight on 28 October and declared himself the country's leader. He has not conceded, and the move follows reports of State Department help for the Bolsonaro family.
The UN General Assembly voted on 28 October to condemn the US economic embargo on Cuba, AP reported. More countries than usual opposed the resolution or abstained after the Trump administration lobbied members ahead of the vote.
Ottawa and Brussels removed the proposed "associate member" status from a draft summit statement, Reuters reported on 28 October, after EU governments said it lacked legal definition. Trump had called the idea "laughable" and threatened to halt trade with Europe.
Russia's foreign minister will travel to the United States on 30 and 31 October for G20 foreign ministers' talks in Atlanta, which are meant to prepare the leaders' summit near Miami in December.
Brent crude for December delivery rose 1.80% to $115.93 a barrel on ICE on 28 October after a Wall Street Journal report that Washington may resume military action against Iran following the 3 November midterm elections.
Trump said on 28 October that preparations are under way for a meeting involving Putin and Zelenskyy, Bloomberg reported. No date or venue was given, while Moscow still rejects a ceasefire and territorial concessions.
Trump announced the scrapping of Biden-era methane rules at a Lubbock, Texas rally for Ken Paxton, who was the first to sue over the 2024 rule. Critics warn the rollback weakens oversight of methane leaks that drive climate warming.
The Trump administration is considering lifting US sanctions on the Russian Direct Investment Fund, the state fund run by Kirill Dmitriev, as Ukraine peace talks widen into business deals with Moscow, according to Pollar's reporting.
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on 27 October that a €3.4 billion European Investment Bank loan to Airbus endangers the US-EU agreement on civil aircraft financing, saying Washington had repeatedly requested details of the June loan without receiving them.
A truce took effect early on 27 October in occupied Oleshky, Ukrainian and Russian officials confirmed, ahead of the 29 October date the White House announced. About 2,000 residents of the flooded town lack food and drinking water.
Trump offered a $1 million reward for tips on election fraud, covering past elections and the 3 November midterms, payable only after arrests and convictions. He also questioned Brazil's runoff, which confirmed Lula as president.
Lula won Brazil's presidential runoff with 51.78% of valid votes against 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro, who has not conceded. The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF fell nearly 20% overnight. The result follows Reuters reporting on State Department efforts to help the Bolsonaro family.
The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration backs Hungarian leader Viktor Orban for UN secretary-general. The plan would make him a joint candidate of the United States, Russia and China; the final decision is still pending.
19–25 October31 entries
Fox News reported on 25 October that the Pentagon's FORTRESS plan would have large US bases operate for 90 days without outside support, using stockpiles, backup power and civilian factories.
Libya's foreign ministry summoned the US chargé d'affaires on 25 October after Trump described the country as "terror-infested". The ministry said the remarks damaged the dignity and standing of the Libyan people.
Seven US lawmakers sent letters on 24 October to six large banks and four port authorities, warning that importing Russian diesel under the Trump-Putin arrangement could bring criminal and civil liability. The letters became public on 26 October, challenging the sanctions waiver from within Congress.
Reuters reported on 24 October that two State Department officials led efforts to help the Bolsonaro family regain power, using sanctions on a Supreme Court justice, visa restrictions and 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods. Brazilian analysts said several measures backfired and strengthened President Lula.
The 9th US Circuit Court of Appeals ruled on 23 October that the administration had not met the statutory conditions to take control of California's National Guard during last year's immigration protests, finding the deployment exceeded presidential authority and encroached on Congress's powers.
Senator Susan Collins announced on 23 October that nine categories of Canadian goods, including blueberries, potatoes and apples, will be removed from the 50% US tariffs. A White House official said preliminary reports are not final policy, and talks with Ottawa have been stalled since August.
A US draft plan for Ukraine would create a demilitarized zone in Donbas, bar Ukraine from NATO and reopen a route for Russian gas to Europe, the Economist reported. It would also give Russia sanctions relief, while a Russian diesel tanker heads for New York.
The White House said Russia and Ukraine agreed to halt military action in Oleshky, a Dnipro river city, from 29 October, brokered by Melania Trump. The pause is meant to let aid in and allow civilian evacuation through set passages.
The Trump administration urged European allies to release emergency diesel reserves and threatened to restrict US diesel exports if they refuse, Reuters reported on 23 October. The push aims to lower domestic fuel prices before the midterms and runs alongside eased measures on Russian fuel.
US ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz told the Financial Times, in an interview published 23 October, that Washington is prepared for a prolonged standoff with Iran and would not rule out the conflict lasting another year, with preventing an Iranian nuclear weapon the stated aim.
Politico Europe reported on 22 October that Washington warned it would not reduce tariffs on European steel and other goods unless Brussels eased implementation of the Digital Markets Act, which governs large technology companies.
Putin said on 22 October that Russia is ready to resume talks toward a final peace deal but rejected any handover of occupied Ukrainian land. The same day Trump claimed Musk had restored Starlink access in Ukraine, which Ukrainian officials dispute.
Trump spoke with Elon Musk and asked him to lift restrictions on Ukraine's use of Starlink, the Wall Street Journal reported on 22 October, as cited by Reuters. The report did not say whether Musk agreed or whether access was restored.
US District Judge Araceli Martínez-Olguín in California ordered the administration on 22 October to suspend its investigations into alleged noncitizen voter registrations in nine states until polls close on 3 November, citing data errors and intimidation of groups assisting voters. The administration may appeal.
The European Parliament gave its Sakharov Prize to the ICC on 22 October, days after the Trump administration imposed sanctions meant to isolate the court over investigations involving the US and its allies, with a six-month wind-down for affected businesses.
Downing Street said it does not recognise the description of Vladimir Putin as a humanitarian, after Steve Witkoff used the term in St Petersburg on 21 October, the day Russia freed a US citizen. London thus publicly distanced itself from the US envoy.
The Pentagon is reportedly planning undercover agents posing as businesspeople to gather economic intelligence on China, and a sabotage unit was set up in April 2026. The Pentagon denies both initiatives.
NATO is giving Ukraine access to its procurement agency NSPA in Luxembourg, letting Kyiv buy weapons, ammunition and military equipment. The arrangement follows cooler Kyiv-Washington ties and a reduced US role in direct supply.
Steve Witkoff thanked Vladimir Putin in Saint Petersburg on 21 October for freeing an American, prompting rebukes from Republican senators while talks on Ukraine stall. The remarks put Trump's envoy at odds with senators of his own party over Russia policy.
French President Emmanuel Macron said on 21 October that comments tying riots in France to Muslim immigrants were "unacceptable and stupid", adding there was no evidence immigration caused the unrest. Trump had promoted those claims in his US political messaging.
Democratic groups and party leaders asked a federal court in Washington to halt federal moves against state voter rolls and to bar threats against election officials, less than two weeks before the 3 November midterms.
Russia released US citizen Stephen Hubbard, held since 2022, while Witkoff was in St Petersburg; Trump announced the release on 21 October, a day after saying he had asked Putin to free him.
Putin told Witkoff in St Petersburg on 21 October that Russia is ready in principle to restart technical-level talks with Ukraine and the US, per Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov. They would address post-war security arrangements, possibly in Abu Dhabi. No breakthrough was reported.
Ursula von der Leyen said on 21 October that EU sanctions on Russian energy will not be lifted, after the Trump administration reportedly agreed with Moscow to ease restrictions on diesel imports until April 2027, setting Washington and Brussels on different sanctions paths.
Steve Witkoff arrived in St Petersburg on the morning of 21 October, a day after talks with Volodymyr Zelensky in Oslo, and is due to present revised peace proposals to Vladimir Putin.
The US Court of International Trade ruled the new 10% global tariffs unlawful but left them in force for most importers while an appeal proceeds.
At a 20 October rally Trump said the United States could leave Europe if it does not find the right way quickly, faulting European countries for not helping in the Iran war and urging them to close borders. No formal withdrawal was announced.
Gellert Global Group, a New Jersey food importer, filed suit on 20 October arguing Trump exceeded his authority by invoking Section 338 of the 1930 Tariff Act on about $20 billion of Canadian imports. The case follows the Supreme Court's February ruling against most earlier tariffs.
Trump said on 20 October he had asked Vladimir Putin to free Stephen Hubbard, a 74-year-old retired teacher held in Russia since 2022. Envoy Steve Witkoff is due to meet Putin in St. Petersburg on 21 October.
The Department of Homeland Security ordered civilian federal agencies to remove DeepSeek products and services built on the model and barred new acquisitions. China's commerce ministry said the measure harms Chinese firms, and Beijing said it violated understandings between Xi Jinping and Trump.
The Department of Homeland Security said on 19 October that immigrants from Ukraine and Sudan can keep Temporary Protected Status for now, despite the scheduled expiry that day. Further announcements are to follow. Trump said he would consider letting Ukrainians stay until the war ends.
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