World·since 26 May·1,100 entries
The Middle East after Gaza
The Gaza war triggered a realignment of Middle Eastern power and a direct US-Iran military conflict, shifting influence toward Gulf states and Iran-aligned actors while forcing regional and European powers to negotiate security for critical maritime chokepoints under wartime conditions.
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This week17 entries
State of playtoday 03:30
US-Iran Track
On 25 October Trump said Washington is weighing either a further attack on Iran or a deal. President Pezeshkian blamed the US for the collapse of interim talks but said Iran should keep pursuing an agreement. Gen. Ali Abdollahi said on 24 October that US warships would be barred from the Persian Gulf.
Iran's ambassador to Pakistan says Tehran offered to reopen Hormuz if the US lifts its naval blockade of Iranian ports, with Qatar helping on an interim framework tied to nuclear talks. Washington reportedly rejected it. Iran says it has not suspended IAEA safeguards obligations.
Saudi-Houthi War
The truce that largely held since 2022 unravelled in July. Saudi Arabia said missile fragments fell near Mecca, Jeddah, Taif and Rabigh on 25 October, and the Houthis again called Riyadh's King Khalid airport a military target. Aramco evacuated its Dhahran headquarters.
Diplomacy and Markets
Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia urge US-Iran dialogue. Brent hit $112 on 20 October. Next tests: Egypt's 26 October vote and Israel's 27 October election.
What comes next
- tomorrowEgypt's parliament votes on military involvement for Saudi Arabia
- in 2 daysIsraeli election
- in 9 daysUS midterm elections, deadline of Trump's no-strike pledge on Iran
Open questions
- Will the Saudi-led offensive secure the Bab el-Mandeb coast without Houthi attacks on Saudi energy sites?
- Will Washington accept Tehran's demand to begin talks with Hormuz rather than nuclear issues?
Who is who8
Abbas Araqchi Iranian foreign minister
Says Tehran will give diplomacy another chance if Washington shows sincere commitment, and wants Hormuz, frozen oil funds and sanctions relief addressed first.
22 Oct
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Iranian military force
Says a tanker hit a mine after using an unauthorised southern route with its tracking switched off, and counts nine ships mined in the strait.
25 Oct
Donald Trump US President
Said on 25 October Washington is weighing a further attack on Iran or a deal, after ruling out strikes before the 3 November midterms.
25 Oct
Houthis Yemeni armed movement
Again called Riyadh's King Khalid airport a military target, after strikes that include a Shabwa camp where at least 53 recruits died.
25 Oct
Saudi-led coalition Military force in Yemen
Ordered civilians out around the Sabah oil station in Sanaa ahead of a planned operation after striking Houthi energy sites.
15 Oct
Abdel Fattah al-Sisi Egyptian President
Said on 17 October Egypt would take any measures necessary to defend Saudi Arabia; the parliamentary vote is set for 26 October.
21 Oct
United Kingdom Britain's government
Will send RAF fighter jets on defensive air patrols over Saudi Arabia, not strikes on Houthi targets, according to the FT.
23 Oct
Hakan Fidan Turkish foreign minister
Hosted Egyptian, Pakistani, Saudi, British, French and German counterparts in Istanbul on 23 October on the US-Iran war, Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, Gaza and Yemen.
24 Oct
Promises5
United Kingdomopen
Britain will deploy RAF fighter jets on defensive air patrols over Saudi Arabia.
20 Oct · ft.com
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelattyopen
Egypt will provide Saudi Arabia any support it requests against Houthi attacks.
13 Oct · bloomberg.com
Donald Trumpopen
The US will carry out no new strikes on Iran before the 3 November midterms.
9 Oct · due 3 Nov · pollar.news
Abbas Araqchiopen
Iran will respond within days to the US proposal under which Hormuz could reopen within seven days.
9 Oct · within days · aljazeera.com
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corpsopen
The IRGC will extend its maritime enforcement measures to the entire Persian Gulf.
9 Oct · pollar.news
Chronicle1,100 entries since 26 May
19–25 October17 entries
Airstrikes killed 11 people, including four children, in Sana'a and at least four others in Hodeida province on 24 October, according to Houthi-controlled health authorities. The strikes came as the Houthis and the US remain in confrontation and Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia intensify.
The State Department reduced personnel at US embassies in Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar and the UAE on 24 October after a US intelligence memo said Iran had stepped up efforts to target Americans. The embassies stay open; Saudi Arabia faces a separate departure order.
Israel ordered a total lockdown of the West Bank on 23 October after a shooting in Hebron killed two Israeli soldiers and wounded others. The Israel Defense Forces then raided the city, adding a West Bank front to the strains on the Gaza ceasefire.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan was due to host counterparts from Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, the UK, France and Germany in Istanbul on 23 October. The agenda covers the US-Iran war, navigation in Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, Gaza and Yemen.
Saudi Aramco ordered the evacuation of its Dhahran headquarters, Reuters reported on 23 October, as fighting intensified around the world's largest crude exporter and the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint. Oil prices were little changed after rising 4% the previous day.
The UAE closed all beaches and coastal areas in Umm Al Quwain after a tanker leak. Satellite imagery showed the slick had spread more than 35 km from the tanker by 21 October and was extending toward island habitats.
After talks in Doha on 22 October, President Macron and Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani urged Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, unhindered aid, freedom of navigation in Hormuz without constraints or fees, and backing for a framework to disarm Hezbollah.
Houthi attacks killed at least one person and wounded eight at a civilian airport in Dammam, and a separate drone attack killed two people at a Saudi oil field, Reuters reported on 22 October. It extends the Houthi campaign into Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province.
The State Department is preparing an ordered departure of personnel and family members from several Gulf missions over the risk of renewed fighting, Reuters reported on 21 October. The US embassy in Riyadh warned of further Houthi attacks after strikes affecting Riyadh's airport.
A Houthi missile strike on a military camp near Shabwa killed 75 Yemeni recruits and wounded more than 200, the Associated Press reported on 21 October. It is the deadliest reported attack since fighting in Yemen intensified, far above earlier tolls of at least 18.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard said a supertanker carrying more than two million barrels of crude burned after striking a mine, claiming it left the permitted corridor despite warnings. Tehran counts nine ships that have hit mines in the strait.
Brent crude rose as high as $112 a barrel on 20 October, a five-month high, while European gas on the Amsterdam exchange passed 90 euros per megawatt-hour, its highest since late 2022, as Hormuz ship attacks and Houthi strikes intensified.
Turkey submitted the Saudi-Pakistani mutual-defence agreement to its parliament for ratification, Bloomberg reported on 20 October. The pact could facilitate military assistance to Saudi Arabia as it faces Houthi attacks, widening the response beyond the Saudi-led coalition.
The UK will deploy Royal Air Force fighter jets to help defend Saudi Arabia against Houthi attacks, the Financial Times reported on 20 October. The mission is defensive air patrol, not strikes on Houthi targets, adding Britain to France in shielding Saudi territory.
The UN World Food Programme said on 19 October it will reduce planned monthly assistance in Gaza from 1.6 million to 1.1 million people because of funding shortages. It said more than two-thirds of the population face acute hunger, with 200,000 in emergency conditions.
Three Houthi ballistic missiles struck the al-Alam camp in Shabwa province on 19 October, and the Houthis called it a Saudi-backed base. Reported death tolls range from 18 to 30, the deadliest single strike in the recent escalation against Saudi-backed forces.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards said a tanker struck a mine and caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz, accusing it of using an unauthorised southern route with tracking systems off. The ship's name, flag and origin were not disclosed.
12–18 October19 entries
Oil exports from Gulf producers other than Iran rose above their pre-war level in the week to 18 October, using pipelines and ship-to-ship transfers, while the Strait of Hormuz carries only about 82% of its earlier volume.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said on 17 October that Egypt would take any measures necessary to defend Saudi Arabia, and parliament scheduled an emergency session, moving beyond the offer of support Foreign Minister Abdelatty made on 13 October.
UKMTO said two vessels transiting near Saudi Arabia were hit on 16 October: a tanker attacked from a small boat with a rocket-propelled grenade, and a second struck by an unidentified projectile. No group claimed responsibility.
The Trump administration announced Iran-related sanctions on 16 October against 16 individuals and 10 entities, per a Treasury notice. Other reporting said the list included an Iraqi bank accused of helping channel US dollars to Iran.
France began deploying military assets to help protect Saudi energy facilities, Al Jazeera reported on 16 October, as the US embassy in Riyadh restricted staff travel over possible attacks on Saudi airports amid the Houthi campaign.
The Houthis struck Yemen's presidential palace complex in Aden on 15 October, saying they targeted Saudi military personnel and weapons depots there. Yemeni officials said two security guards were killed, extending the Houthi campaign against Saudi-backed forces.
Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev said on 15 October that the EU–Gulf Cooperation Council summit in Riyadh is expected to be postponed because Saudi Arabia is under Houthi attack, delaying high-level European–Gulf diplomacy.
The UN peacekeeping chief said on 14 October that major questions remain over southern Lebanon, including Hezbollah's refusal to disarm and the risk of renewed fighting if Iran-Israel hostilities resume. The EU plans a training mission for Lebanon's army, not a replacement for UNIFIL's monitoring role.
Netanyahu said on 14 October he does not support a pre-emptive attack on Iran before Israel's 27 October election, Reuters reported, while warning Iran and Hezbollah against attacks. Defence Minister Katz threatened further territorial action against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy said a container ship carrying more than 2,500 containers sank after striking a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz on 14 October. Iranian authorities gave few details, and who laid the mine and any casualty figure are unconfirmed.
UKMTO reported on 14 October that a container ship and a tanker were struck by unknown projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials described the attacks as part of a broader effort to restrict passage, pushing oil prices higher.
Axios, Channel 12 and N12 reported that Netanyahu and Trump discussed a joint US-Israeli operation against Iran ahead of the midterm votes. The White House called the report false. It bears on the halt in US strikes that underpins the Hormuz talks.
The Saudi-led coalition told civilians to leave the area around the Yemen Oil Company's Sabah central station in Sanaa on 13 October ahead of a planned military operation. Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree threatened a "harsh and painful" response against Riyadh.
Israel told foreign airlines that pilots and cabin crew holding the nationality of 31 mostly Muslim-majority countries may not fly into its airspace, and Air France says it is complying. The rule followed an alleged 30 September attempt to crash a flydubai flight into Ben Gurion airport.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said on 13 October that Cairo is prepared to provide any support Riyadh requests as Houthi attacks hit Saudi airports. He did not say whether this includes military assistance.
Mohammed bin Salman rejected an Israeli proposal for Saudi participation in military action against the Houthis, Israeli media reported, as cited by Anadolu on 13 October. The idea was raised through US mediation. Riyadh still has no relations with Israel and ties normalization to Palestinian statehood.
India's Foreign Ministry said on 12 October that two of the 11 Indian crew aboard the MT Petro Dolphin are missing after a drone struck the vessel in the Strait of Hormuz area, adding to pressure for coordinated maritime security.
The Houthis said Saudi airstrikes struck the Hamdan and Thourah districts of Sana'a early on 12 October. Saudi authorities did not immediately comment. The reported retaliation followed Houthi missile and drone attacks on Saudi airports.
Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia issued a joint statement on 12 October calling the Houthi attacks on Riyadh's airport a dangerous escalation. They backed Saudi measures to deter further strikes and demanded an immediate, unconditional end to the attacks.
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