Europe·since 26 May·418 entries
European democracies and populism
Populist and anti-liberal forces hold institutional ground across the European Union and test the limits of liberal democracy through elections, court fights and clashes with EU frameworks, while opposition movements in Hungary and Serbia have beaten entrenched governments.
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This week21 entries
State of playtoday 13:43
Poland's Tribunal
Poland's Constitutional Tribunal is in a standoff. On 30 October judge Anna Korwin-Piotrowska took over its running and suspended president Bogdan Święczkowski for a month, and riot police entered the grounds. On 3 November eight judges adopted the 2027 budget plan while two suspended judges were excluded.
On 6 November the Supreme Court's Professional Liability Chamber ruled it has no competence over Tribunal judges and returned the appeals of Święczkowski and Sochański to the Tribunal. Prosecutors have sent six motions to lift Święczkowski's immunity. Tusk ruled out compromise, and Justice Commissioner Michael McGrath says parliament can appoint new judges. Metsola meets Nawrocki and Tusk separately in Warsaw on 6 November.
Right-Wing Realignment
Mateusz Morawiecki's Rozwój Plus filed a constructive no-confidence motion naming Marek Jurek as premier, and Konfederacja's Bosak threatened to shorten the Sejm term. A 2 November poll puts Civic Coalition first at 27.2%, yet a seat projection gives the right-wing bloc 258 of 460 seats.
Wider Picture
The Commission offered Serbia a route back to accession talks, and Article 7 on Hungary stays open, with a vote expected in December. Italy's Futuro Nazionale has slipped from about 9% to 5.8–7.9%, while Spain votes on 29 November with Vox expected to gain seats.
The test is whether the Jurek motion gathers a Sejm majority.
What comes next
- in 23 daysSpanish Senate election
Open questions
- Will the Constitutional Tribunal accept the suspension of its president, or will the standoff deepen after the six immunity motions?
- Will the Jurek no-confidence motion gather a majority in the Sejm?
Who is who8
Marine Le Pen National Rally leader
Said on 1 November that events at Poland's Constitutional Tribunal looked like a forcible takeover, after launching her 2027 presidential campaign on 25 October.
1 Nov
Bogdan Święczkowski Constitutional Tribunal president
Suspended for a month on 30 October; six motions to lift his immunity are pending and his appeal was returned to the Tribunal by the Supreme Court on 6 November.
6 Nov
Anna Korwin-Piotrowska Constitutional Tribunal judge and acting head
Runs the Tribunal since 30 October; eight judges adopted the 2027 budget plan on 3 November under her authority while the quorum stays contested.
4 Nov
Karol Nawrocki Polish President
Pushed into the Tribunal on 30 October; his chancellery said it will file notices of a possible crime, and he called a National Security Council sitting for 3 November.
6 Nov
Donald Tusk Polish Prime Minister
Ruled out compromise in the Tribunal dispute, faces a constructive no-confidence motion and agreed to attend the National Security Council.
6 Nov
Mateusz Morawiecki Rozwój Plus leader
Announced on 31 October a constructive no-confidence motion against Tusk, proposing Marek Jurek as prime minister.
31 Oct
Michael McGrath EU Justice Commissioner
Said on 1 November that Poland's parliament can appoint Tribunal judges and the court must follow the Polish constitution and EU Court of Justice case law.
1 Nov
Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz PSL leader
Proposed on 5 November ending the current Tribunal judges' terms and having the National Assembly choose a new panel in one step.
6 Nov
Numbers
AUR poll share in Romania (%)
40→40 %
10/10 → 22/10
Koalicja Obywatelska poll share (United Surveys)
30.6→27.2 %
07/10 → 02/11 · pollar.news
Promises5
Presidential officeopen
The presidential office will file prosecutor complaints against three Constitutional Tribunal judges over Nawrocki's night entry.
1 Nov · pollar.news
Donald Tuskopen
The government will not back down in the Constitutional Tribunal dispute.
31 Oct · pollar.news
Krzysztof Bosakopen
Konfederacja will file a resolution to shorten the Sejm term if the Tribunal dispute escalates.
31 Oct · if the dispute escalates · pollar.news
Marine Le Penopen
She would hold a constitutional referendum on a public veil ban and national preference.
10 Oct · due 31 Dec 2027 · lemonde.fr
Marine Le Penopen
A Le Pen government would cut France's EU contribution by more than €11 billion from 2027.
8 Oct · due 1 Jan 2027 · lemonde.fr
Chronicle418 entries since 26 May
2–8 November11 entries
Poland's Supreme Court Professional Liability Chamber ruled on 6 November that it has no competence over Constitutional Tribunal judges and sent the case back to the tribunal. Both men can still appeal, and a three-judge panel would then hear the complaint.
Belgium's parliament passed a law on 6 November letting police enter the homes of suspected undocumented migrants who ignored removal orders. Reuters reports it is part of Prime Minister Bart De Wever's coalition effort to restrict migration and raise expulsions.
Six motions sent to Poland's Constitutional Tribunal ask it to lift the immunity of suspended president Bogdan Święczkowski. One would also let prosecutors seek his detention and temporary arrest, escalating the legal fight over the court's leadership.
The European Commission's enlargement report of 4 November offered Serbia a possible return to accession talks if a new government strengthens democratic institutions and rights, after the student-led opposition beat Aleksandar Vučić. Kaja Kallas said the government could "turn the page".
Democrats took control of the US Senate and were on course to dominate the House in the 3 November midterms. Politico reports European far-right parties tied to Trump are reassessing strategy, with Bardella blaming Trump's Iran war.
Eight judges at Poland's Constitutional Tribunal adopted the 2027 budget plan on 3 November, excluding two judges suspended on 30 October. The vote shows the court functioning under the acting head's authority while the quorum question stays contested.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk will join the National Security Council sitting called by President Nawrocki for 15:00 in Warsaw, government spokesman Adam Szłapka said. Representatives of Grzegorz Braun's party were invited, prompting calls for their exclusion.
Staff at Czech Television and Czech Radio held a one-day strike on 3 November against a government proposal to cut their financing and move it into the state budget. Unions say the plan threatens the broadcasters' independence and viability.
A United Surveys by IBRiS poll for Wirtualna Polska, taken on 2 November, puts Civic Coalition first at 27.2%. A seat projection based on the results gives a right-wing bloc 258 of 460 Sejm seats, after the Tribunal leadership clash.
Germany's AfD is reconsidering its longstanding opposition to the euro and instead advocates treaty changes to create a less integrated EU, Reuters reported on 2 November. Co-leader Alice Weidel presented the shift with allies in the Europe of Sovereign Nations group after Saxony-Anhalt gains.
The euro rose to 4.41 zloty, its highest level in three years, as the Constitutional Tribunal dispute weighed on Polish assets and Warsaw stocks. Bloomberg warned the political conflict could also paralyze the National Bank of Poland.
26 October – 1 November16 entries
Acting President Iliana Yotova won Bulgaria's 1 November presidential runoff, according to Deutsche Welle, becoming the country's first elected female head of state. The contest was polarised and overshadowed by the war in Ukraine, which she has linked to opposition to military aid.
The presidential office will file prosecutor complaints against three Constitutional Tribunal judges after Karol Nawrocki went to the court overnight. The sides dispute what happened at the door, adding a criminal-law track to the Tribunal standoff.
Marine Le Pen said on X on 1 November that events around Poland's Constitutional Tribunal looked like a forcible takeover. Jordan Bardella accused Prime Minister Donald Tusk of obstructing the court, extending the dispute into French far-right messaging.
Justice Commissioner Michael McGrath said on 1 November that Poland's parliament has the power to appoint new Constitutional Tribunal judges and that the court should operate consistently with the Polish constitution and EU Court of Justice case law, Politico reported.
Slovenian prime minister Janez Janša posted a list of ten EU rule-of-law cases on X on 31 October, citing police sent to Poland's Constitutional Tribunal. Italian conservative MEPs backed President Nawrocki in the same dispute, extending the row to other governments.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Saturday evening, 31 October, that the government will not back down in the Constitutional Tribunal dispute, a day after police were deployed on the tribunal's grounds, closing off a negotiated exit as President Nawrocki opens consultations.
Konfederacja leaders Sławomir Mentzen and Krzysztof Bosak presented a Constitutional Tribunal reset proposal at the Presidential Palace on 31 October. Bosak said the party would file a resolution to shorten the Sejm term if the dispute escalates.
Mateusz Morawiecki announced a constructive vote of no confidence against Donald Tusk's government on 31 October, proposing former Sejm marshal Marek Jurek as prime minister. The move follows the dispute over the Constitutional Tribunal, where its president and vice-president were told to pause their duties.
Judge Anna Korwin-Piotrowska, who took over running Poland's Constitutional Tribunal on 30 October and suspended its president for a month, ordered most staff on 31 October to stay away from the building while keeping their pay.
President Karol Nawrocki called urgent consultations with parliamentary parties on 31 October, a day after turning back from Senegal and pushing his way into the Constitutional Tribunal while police held the site, deepening the clash over the suspension of its president.
Portugal's far-right Chega polled 21% in a national survey reported on 30 October, ahead of the governing centre-right Democratic Alliance on 20%. The Socialist Party led on 23%.
Poland's prosecutor general sent five immunity motions to the Constitutional Tribunal on 30 October, while its president and vice-president were ordered to pause their duties for a month. Judge Anna Korwin-Piotrowska said she would take over the court's management.
Police entered the Constitutional Tribunal in Warsaw on the evening of 30 October, citing a judge's warning about threats to judges and staff. Protesters gathered outside, and politicians including Jarosław Kaczyński addressed them.
Law and Justice leader Jarosław Kaczyński said on 28 October that nationalist-led countries could jointly negotiate withdrawal from the EU as a pressure tactic, while advocating greater national-parliamentary oversight of EU institutions.
The Warsaw Regional Court ruled on 28 October that activist Zbigniew Komosa may not publicly suggest Lech Kaczyński contributed to the 2010 Smolensk crash, and ordered an apology. The ruling is not final, and Komosa has announced an appeal.
The European Commission proposed expanding Frontex's powers and resources to support returns of irregular migrants, including cooperation with non-EU countries. Deutsche Welle reported on 27 October that critics say the plan answers populist and far-right pressure and could weaken a rights-based border approach.
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