WMO warns 2027 could be the warmest year on record as El Niño builds

A warning as the Antalya talks open

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned on 9 November 2026 that 2027 could become the warmest year ever measured, with the El Niño climate pattern adding to the heat. WMO chief Celeste Saulo announced the warning in Geneva, timed to coincide with the opening of the UN climate conference in Antalya, Turkey. The conference began that morning and is scheduled to run for two weeks. Saulo said heatwaves, tropical storms and heavy rainfall are intensifying faster than the WMO's historical baselines would suggest.

Temperatures and the 1.5 degree line

The WMO's new report on the state of the climate puts global average surface temperature from January to September 2026 at about 1.47 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The analysis carries an uncertainty of 0.13 degrees, which means the Paris Agreement threshold of 1.5 degrees may already have been crossed. The last time that happened was in 2024. The past 12 years were each the warmest since records began, and the last four years were the four warmest on record. For the coming months, the WMO expects El Niño to push global temperatures up by a further 0.1 to 0.2 degrees Celsius, keeping the world exceptionally hot through the rest of this year and into early 2027.

Deadly heat, floods and glacier collapse

Extreme weather caused severe impacts around the globe this year, according to the WMO. Preliminary estimates put more than 30,000 extra deaths in Europe down to heatwaves, drought and wildfires. In April, around 146.5 million people in India were affected by extreme heat. In August, more than 1,300 people died in the Himalayas after a glacier collapse and a flash flood. In Switzerland, the Federal Office of Public Health (BAG) said in the week of 2 November 2026 that about 1,260 deaths between May and August can statistically be attributed to heat, based on early environmental-epidemiological estimates.

Record sea levels and El Niño's reach

The WMO reports that global mean sea level climbed to a record level this year. The rise may partly stem from El Niño, which shifts rainfall from land to the ocean. Glaciers lost more than 400 gigatonnes of ice worldwide in 2025, equal to a sea-level rise of one millimetre. The current El Niño is expected to last into the spring, and Saulo said it would probably be the strongest since 1950. The phenomenon recurs every few years and drives extreme weather and rising temperatures.

Guterres calls for faster action

UN Secretary-General António Guterres told the conference opening that humanity has entered a new era of climate extremes, and that those least responsible suffer first and most. He urged governments to cut harmful emissions faster, speed up the agreed shift away from oil, gas and coal, and provide vulnerable states with the finance and protection they need. His speech came on the first morning of the two-week talks in Antalya.