WMO says 2026 ranks among four hottest years as UN warns of climate extremes

COP31 opens with a warning

The World Meteorological Organization released its State of the Climate report on Monday, 9 November 2026, the opening day of the UN climate conference COP31 in Antalya, Turkey, which runs until 20 November. The agency puts global average surface temperature from January to September 2026 at 1.47 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average for 1850 to 1900, and considers it likely to rise further by the end of the year. The 2015 Paris Agreement, agreed at COP21, aims to keep warming from exceeding 2°C and preferably below 1.5°C. UN Secretary-General António Guterres used the summit's launch to press leaders for faster action.

“We have entered a new age of climate extremes.”

Four hottest years on record

Preliminary data place 2026 among the four hottest years on record, WMO climate information chief John Kennedy told reporters, adding that the final numbers could bring it close to the top. The WMO's conclusion draws on nine internationally recognised datasets and identifies 2023 to 2026 as the four hottest years on record. Each of the past 12 years also ranks among the 12 hottest on record, the agency said. The analysis is a preview of the full 2026 annual report, which will be published next spring, so the figures released on Monday remain provisional.

El Niño and the ocean

The El Niño event now developing is expected to be the strongest since at least 1950, and the WMO expects it to reach its strongest level on record in December. WMO chief Celeste Saulo noted that El Niño releases heat from the ocean, which has been the warmest ever measured this year. Speaking to reporters in Geneva, she said the current El Niño could unleash more heat and extreme weather well into next year.

Saulo added a warning about the year ahead.

“We should prepare for another record-breaking year in 2027.”

Sea level, ice and freshwater

The sea level is the highest on record, and the report notes that Earth's energy imbalance is growing. In 2025 the annual mass loss of ice was enough to fill five Olympic swimming pools every second of that year, according to the WMO. Freshwater storage has been declining since 2014, and glaciers continue a long-term retreat. The agency says greenhouse gases are trapping heat at levels without precedent, and that most of the excess heat is absorbed by the ocean.

Calls for action

Guterres's statement urged leaders at COP31 to cut emissions faster, speed a just transition away from fossil fuels, and deliver the finance and protection vulnerable countries need. He framed the moment as one in which extreme climate events become the norm, describing the combined effect in these words:

“A supersized El Niño is colliding with a planet already superheated by man made climate change.”

The conference that Guterres addressed runs in Antalya until 20 November.