Copernicus says 2026 will very likely be the second-warmest year on record

A near-certain breach of the 1.5 degree mark

Copernicus said on Friday, 6 November, that 2026 will very likely be the second-warmest year since records began, behind 2024, which remains the warmest. The service puts the chance of 2026 matching or exceeding 2024 at about 20%. It also expects 2026 to be the second calendar year with global warming above 1.5 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels, and the 2023 to 2026 four-year average to pass the same mark. Under the Paris Agreement the 1.5 degree target counts as officially exceeded only when measured as a multi-year average, a distinction the agency drew in its statement. An exceptionally strong El Niño is adding to warming already driven by human activity, according to the forecast. Samantha Burgess of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) said the figures show how long this phase of global warming has lasted.

October sets records on land and at sea

October 2026 was the warmest October since records began, with global surface temperature 1.75 degrees above pre-industrial levels. It was the third consecutive month above the 1.5 degree line. Average sea-surface temperature outside the polar regions reached 20.95 degrees, the highest ever recorded for an October and above the previous October record set in 2023. In the Pacific, where El Niño kept strengthening, the deviation climbed to 3.21 degrees.

October 2026 global surface temperature above pre-industrial1.75

Paris Agreement target1.5

October 2026 global surface temperature above pre-industrial

1.75 °C

Paris Agreement target

1.5 °C

Data from the article text

Impacts in Europe and beyond

In Europe, the warm conditions are driving heat records and falling water levels on the Rhine, the Danube and the Vistula. Heavy rain and flooding have hit several countries, including the United Kingdom, Ireland, Spain, Greece and Turkey. Floods in Nepal have killed more than 1,400 people, with thousands reported missing. The United Nations now officially assumes the 1.5 degree goal will be overshot, and a September report from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) holds that risks grow with every fraction of a degree. Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, urged keeping any overshoot as small and brief as possible and removing CO2 from the atmosphere to bring temperatures back down. He told a briefing that exceeding 1.5 degrees within the next five years is now unavoidable.

COP31 opens in Antalya

COP31 opens on Monday, 9 November, in Antalya, Turkey, and runs until 20 November, bringing nearly 200 countries and thousands of participants together. The Turkish and Australian co-presidencies frame the meeting as focused on implementation and on the future. Scientific reports show the 1.5 degree limit will be crossed before the end of the decade, so the conference's task is to limit the size and length of the overshoot. The Antalya region itself saw significant wildfires in the weeks before 6 November.