Vance sends letter to Iran as US warns allies of strikes after midterms

Strikes threatened after the midterms

The United States has warned several Middle Eastern countries and regional allies that new military action against Iran could follow the midterm elections on Tuesday, 3 November. Washington also cautioned them that Iran might retaliate against those partners, two diplomats told the Associated Press on condition of anonymity. The diplomats said President Donald Trump has not yet made a final decision. Trump has repeatedly said he is weighing a new operation once the vote ends, and the Wall Street Journal reported that Washington asked several Gulf states to prepare for a brief, intense military campaign.

At a campaign rally in the week of 19 October, Trump said the US might carry out another small operation under the name Epic Fury, the name of the offensive that began on 28 February with Israel against Tehran. Neither side has carried out large-scale strikes on land targets since early September, but the two countries have clashed at sea, where Washington is blockading Iranian ports and Iran is trying to control the Strait of Hormuz.

Diplomacy reopens

The Wall Street Journal reported on 29 October that Vice President JD Vance had sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, at Trump's request. The aim is to restart talks with Tehran and head off a new US attack, with Vance weighing whether the sides can find enough common ground to persuade Trump not to order one. The paper described the letter as a possible framework for negotiations rather than a peace agreement.

On 28 October, Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said on X that Tehran continues to give diplomacy a chance and is in close contact with mediators on its seven-day plan, which he said could be implemented in under a week. Washington rejected that plan more than a month ago. Araghchi first presented it on 25 September at a press conference on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York. It offered a Middle East ceasefire, an end to the US naval blockade, lifted sanctions on Iranian oil and the release of frozen Iranian assets, in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and starting talks on Iran's nuclear program.

Mediators press for nuclear concessions

Citing three sources from the United States, Israel and the Middle East, Axios reported that mediators led by Qatar are pressing Iran to reach a deal before the election. One demand is that the International Atomic Energy Agency inspect Iran's nuclear facilities, as agreed in September 2025, in return for some relief from US sanctions. Qatari negotiator Ali al-Thawadi, during his visit to Tehran in the week of 26 October, reportedly suggested that Iran give up its enriched uranium stockpile and drop its insistence that Washington first lift the naval blockade and release frozen funds. The ideas are expected to need approval from Iran's Supreme Leader in the coming days. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey made a similar case during a visit to Tehran several days earlier.

Military preparations and the blockade

Israel's chief of staff Eyal Zamir spoke on Monday, 26 October, with Brad Cooper, commander of US Central Command, to coordinate potential strikes in advance. Those targets could include nuclear and energy infrastructure as well as Iran's leadership, according to the reporting. Israel and Washington have prepared possible attacks, but Trump is described as reluctant, and he has said he will not strike before the elections. The United Arab Emirates foreign ministry urged the parties to act sensibly and seek political solutions to contain tensions.

What comes next

Iran says its armed forces are fully prepared to defend the country while it keeps diplomacy open, and no progress toward a peace agreement has been announced so far. The next decision point is the midterm vote on 3 November, after which Trump has said he is weighing a new military operation. Until then the parties continue to trade threats, and the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved.