US and Israel reportedly plan Iran strikes after 3 November midterms, White House rules out pre-vote attack

Trump rules out talks and points to a move soon

Speaking to reporters before boarding Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, President Donald Trump said Washington is not negotiating with Iran. He said something would happen fairly soon, in one direction or the other, and that most people expected it to come after the midterm elections. Trump described the situation as a small conflict with Iran and said the United States was doing very well both militarily and financially. He claimed Iran's military, navy and air force had been neutralised and that Tehran had run out of money, with what he called the highest inflation a country has seen in 50 years.

White House rules out an attack before the midterms

Deputy White House spokesperson Anna Kelly told Europa Press that the United States would not attack Iran at any point before the midterm elections on 3 November. Those elections will renew one third of the Senate and the whole House of Representatives, both currently held by the Republican Party. Kelly said Iran was in very poor economic and military condition and that the blockade of Iranian ports would keep being enforced firmly. She also said a record amount of oil was flowing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Washington and Tel Aviv reportedly prepare post-vote strikes

The New York Times, citing US officials and other people briefed on the discussions, reported that the US and Israeli militaries are drawing up concrete plans for a new bombing campaign after the midterms. Targets reportedly include Iranian energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile and drone stockpiles. According to the paper, Pete Hegseth met Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel to discuss new attacks. Both armies have stepped up exercises, flying aircraft over Iraq to practise attack manoeuvres. The Financial Times had earlier reported that Netanyahu drew up plans for new strikes but met opposition from Trump, who ruled them out before the midterms. According to the report, some military strategists believe a brief, intense campaign of three days could cause enough economic damage to force Iran into diplomatic concessions.

The previous campaign, carried out between February and April, made no significant progress in negotiations and pushed up energy prices and global inflation. Trump has repeatedly held back proposals to resume large-scale fighting, including an operation planned for early October.

A timeline of postponed strikes

Axios reported on 7 October that the Pentagon had ordered US Central Command to finish preparations for a possible resumption of operations against Iran. The next day Trump announced publicly that the US would not resume bombing before the midterms, while keeping the naval blockade and economic pressure on Tehran. On 13 October Axios reported conversations between Trump and Netanyahu about a new offensive, which had initially been considered even before the two countries' elections. The reports consistently place any new offensive after the 3 November vote.

Gulf shipping and regional infrastructure under threat

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy said it had struck four ships engaged in ship-to-ship oil transfers in the Gulf, and that three other ships hit mines west of the Strait of Hormuz overnight, according to Al Jazeera's reporting of the Guards' claims. Gulf states remain dependent on US military technology but doubt they can still count on Washington in a crisis. Houthi missile and drone raids have damaged energy facilities and an international airport in Riyadh. Saudi Arabia asked for US military intervention, but Trump limited American support to intelligence sharing and operational assistance. Iran has warned that it would respond to any new campaign with broader attacks.