Ultra-Orthodox UTJ refuses to back Netanyahu for Israeli prime minister

A blow to Netanyahu's coalition math

On Thursday, 5 November, the ultra-Orthodox party United Torah Judaism (UTJ) told President Isaac Herzog that it would recommend no Knesset member to form the next government. The presidency announced the outcome after the party's delegation met Herzog during consultations that followed the 27 October election. UTJ won seven of the 120 seats in the Knesset and has been part of Netanyahu's governing coalition, sitting in his first cabinet in 1996. In 2022 the party had recommended Netanyahu for prime minister, which makes this week's refusal a clear break. The party also withheld support from Gadi Eisenkot, the opposition leader and former military leader who is trying to unite the centre and the right-of-centre parties.

The presidency's statement gave the decision in plain terms.

“The party has decided not to recommend any Knesset member for forming a government.”

Why the ultra-Orthodox parties broke with Netanyahu

UTJ draws its base from Ashkenazi Jews with roots in Central and Eastern Europe, while Shas serves Sephardi voters from North Africa and the Arab world. Both parties backed Netanyahu's efforts to keep exemptions from military service for religious students, but he never got a law enshrining those exemptions through parliament. That failure drew strong criticism from many Israelis, because reservists have carried longer service terms during the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. Both ultra-Orthodox parties firmly reject conscription of religious students. UTJ's Isaac Pindrus set out the party's condition during Thursday's meeting with Herzog.

“In any government that is formed, our immediate point will be settling the status of Torah students.”

Seat arithmetic and the path ahead

Central Elections Committee chairman Noam Sohlberg announced on Wednesday, 4 November, that the right-wing bloc, made up of Likud and several ultra-Orthodox and far-right parties, will hold 53 of the 120 seats. The opposition bloc led by Eisenkot holds 48, and a majority requires 61. Since UTJ's abstention, expected recommendations stand at 46 for Netanyahu and 56 for Eisenkot, after the Raam list backed Eisenkot on Wednesday. The Unified List, the main Arab party with 11 seats, had not yet announced its position.

Netanyahu bloc53

Eisenkot-led opposition bloc48

Netanyahu bloc

53 seats

Eisenkot-led opposition bloc

48 seats

Data from the article text

What happens next

Herzog is meeting representatives of the main parties in the week of 2 November before he chooses a member to form a government. He usually bases the choice on which candidate receives the most recommendations, so he is likely to task Eisenkot. The nominee would then have 28 days to form a government, with a possible extension of 14 days. The timeline below traces the key steps so far.