US military weighs 'mother of all bombs' on Iran's energy and nuclear sites

Strike options under review

The US military has drawn up attack plans that could include the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb, known as the 'mother of all bombs' (MOAB), CNN reported on Thursday, citing US officials familiar with the matter. The targets are Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear facilities. The plans would be carried out only if President Donald Trump orders combat operations to resume. One source told CNN that Trump had already ordered additional strikes against a 'significant part' of Iran's energy infrastructure, which could involve the MOAB. A second source said plans for attacks on Iranian nuclear sites, including a location known as 'Pickaxe Mountain', explicitly call for the weapon. The same report says no decision has yet been made on carrying out strikes. A White House official told CNN that the administration does not comment on sensitive military plans that may or may not exist, adding that Trump 'keeps all options on the table' to stop Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Doubts about effectiveness

The MOAB weighs 21,600 pounds and is designed to produce a powerful blast over a wide area rather than to penetrate deeply buried targets. For that reason, the sources cited by CNN questioned whether it could destroy Iranian nuclear facilities protected by rock and built deep below the surface. One person familiar with the planning described it as effective for clearing a large area, but not designed as a deep-penetration warhead. Use of the weapon would be the first time it has been deployed in the conflict with Iran, which CNN describes as a notable escalation. Sources also said it remains unclear whether the bomb would achieve any of Trump's stated strategic goals or change the balance of the war.

Pressure at home

Trump is under pressure to end a war that is highly unpopular with voters, after more than six months of US bombing. Few signs point to a negotiated settlement between the two countries. Republicans are preparing for possible political fallout from voters at the midterm congressional elections on 3 November. Trump and his advisers have discussed options that could present a 'definitive' end to the war, at least in terms of their message, aware of how unpopular the conflict has become. Some figures in the administration have described the war as essentially won, but Trump has been more guarded recently, declining to declare victory and saying the US still has unfinished business there.

On Wednesday, 14 October, Trump announced plans for what he called a special testing centre for advanced weapons in Montana. He made the announcement at a campaign event in Kalispell, a city of 30,000 residents about 320 kilometres northwest of the state capital, Helena. Testing at the site is to cover advanced defence technologies, including autonomous weapons, space systems, electronic warfare and hypersonic weapons. The rally was the final stop of a campaign tour supporting Republican candidates in several states before the midterms.

Shifts at sea

Two Iranian sources told Reuters that Tehran began using different offensive tactics about 10 days earlier against ships it considers to be violating its restrictions, and that this led to more attacks on those vessels. The change involved both the type and the pace of the attacks. The outlet frames the shift as an effort to keep oil prices high and to influence the US midterm elections. The bomb reports and the maritime attacks are both part of a conflict that has entered its seventh month of US bombing.