Qatari mediators return to Tehran as Trump says Iran war will end soon

Mediators return to Tehran

Qatari mediators returned to Tehran on Friday, 30 October, on their second visit within the same week, in what sources describe as a final push for a temporary agreement between Iran and the Trump administration. The effort aims to head off a new, intense round of fighting before the US midterm elections on Tuesday, 3 November. Mediators are working on a version of a seven-day plan that Iran presented at the United Nations General Assembly last month. Under that proposal, Iran would allow ships to pass freely through the Strait of Hormuz if Washington lifts its blockade of Iranian ports, lets Tehran export oil and gives it access to part of its frozen assets abroad. The two sides would then restart talks on a final agreement, though an official told Reuters that progress has so far been minimal.

Sticking points on uranium and sequencing

Washington and Tehran distrust each other and disagree on the order in which commitments would be carried out, as well as on the fate of Iran's stockpile of 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to a high level. The US wants Iran to agree to a timetable that lets International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors visit the key nuclear sites where the stockpile is believed to be kept, a person briefed on the talks said. The Trump administration has also repeatedly insisted that Iran hand over that stockpile, enriched to a level close to what is needed for nuclear weapons, and move it out of the country. Iranian officials publicly reject that option. Tehran insists the US first lift its blockade and its sanctions on Iranian oil exports, while Washington wants the nuclear issue included from the start. A senior Iranian official rejected the latest proposals as unacceptable and said Tehran is not changing its position on its nuclear program.

The Vance letter and the Rezaei channel

The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday, 28 October, that Vice President JD Vance had written to Mohsen Rezaei, who heads Iran's Supreme National Security Council, in an effort to revive peace negotiations. Rezaei is a former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Trump has said the letter concerned medical supplies, and that he approved Vance's request to make contact because Iran needed help with them. The Washington Post, citing US officials, reported that American intelligence agencies see working with Rezaei as the best option for preventing a return to hostilities. The paper also reported that Rezaei is believed to have been in contact with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei since receiving the letter, and that he had not yet replied to Vance. According to a US official cited by the Wall Street Journal, Istanbul or Doha would be the likeliest venues for a meeting. The White House reportedly believes the window for a settlement without a return to combat may be closing.

Military options and Gulf warnings

On Thursday, 29 October, Central Command chief Admiral Brad Cooper briefed Trump at the White House on military options against Iran, a rare in-person visit, according to the Wall Street Journal. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Dan Caine attended, along with other cabinet members, according to sources. That briefing came a day after military leaders met Vance on Wednesday. The Journal had earlier reported that US officials told several Gulf states to prepare for a short but intense campaign against Iran after the midterm elections. Washington is also sending an extra Patriot system to Israel and moving personnel away from bases considered more vulnerable in case of escalation, amid concern over how quickly interceptor missile stocks can be replenished. The Pentagon and US Central Command declined to comment. Iran has warned, publicly and through private channels, that it would strike a wide range of US and Gulf targets if attacked.

Trump's stance ahead of the vote

On Friday, 30 October, Trump told the KCMO radio station in Kansas City that he believes the war with Iran will end soon, without explaining how. He said the US needs a guarantee that Iran will never obtain a nuclear weapon. Trump has said the US will not strike Iran before the elections. He has also referred to the bombing campaign that the US and Israel carried out against Iran in the spring, calling it Epic Fury, and has said that Iran may either face another such strike or make a deal.