US and Iran edge toward a nuclear deal as Trump weighs strikes or talks

Nuclear proposal under review

Iran is prepared to discuss its nuclear program, a subject it had previously kept off the negotiating table, according to a diplomatic source with knowledge of the talks cited by Bloomberg. Tehran is considering proposals on its nuclear activities submitted by Qatar, which is acting as the main mediator between the two sides. The source asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the talks and said that any Iranian concession on the issue could be an important step toward an agreement. Negotiations have stalled since a temporary ceasefire agreed in June collapsed. In a statement issued on Friday, 6 November, Qatar's emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, said he had spoken by phone with Donald Trump about Doha's efforts to bridge the differences between the warring parties.

Trump weighs three options

After meeting his national security advisers on Thursday, 5 November, Trump said he would soon decide whether to escalate the war with Iran, now that the midterm elections were over. Axios reported that the vote was seen as a turning point in whether he would launch a new wave of bombing. According to Axios, Trump is considering three paths for now: new strikes, continued economic strangulation of the Iranian government, or a deal that includes significant concessions to Tehran. Kathimerini reported that the Thursday discussion was the first on Iran since the vote, held during the weekly intelligence briefing and citing two US officials. Vice President JD Vance has publicly linked the war to the Republican election defeat, and Trump rejected that criticism, insisting the war was worth it. The Wall Street Journal reported that officials in the administration are pressing Trump to resume mass strikes, arguing he needs a military win to avoid being seen as defeated twice.

A two-day draft sequence

Qatari mediators have discussed a draft proposal with Tehran and the White House, according to regional sources cited by Kathimerini. Under the draft, on the first day the United States would lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports and release part of the frozen Iranian funds. In return, Iran would formally invite the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to send inspectors to nuclear facilities damaged in the bombing, based on an agreement reached in Cairo a year earlier. On the second day, Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and further steps would follow toward a broader settlement. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held several phone calls on Thursday, 5 November, with mediators from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Egypt. An Iranian official told Reuters on the same day that Tehran has seven demands, including lifting sanctions, access to frozen assets and war reparations, while Washington insists nuclear issues be part of the initial talks.

Costs and political limits

The Pentagon puts the cost of the war at $47 billion, a figure that excludes damage to US military bases and the effect of higher fuel prices on consumers, according to Kathimerini. Congress never approved additional funding for the war, and the newly elected chamber is expected to rule out such funding in the future. Democrats have said they intend to open an investigation into Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, who has little political capital in the legislature. Hegseth described the war as a bold effort that will guarantee Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon. The conflict began on 28 February, when Trump and Netanyahu launched attacks on Iran, and Iran responded by striking US allies across the Middle East. The fighting also caused sharp disruption in energy markets, pushing up fuel prices and adding to inflationary pressure worldwide.