Midterms on 3 November: Democrats favoured for House, Senate control within reach

The vote on 3 November

On 3 November 2026, voters will elect all 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats, along with some governors, mayors and other officials. Voting can begin up to 50 days before election day, depending on the state. Because Trump is not on the ballot, the midterms are traditionally treated as a referendum on his administration, and his party has almost always lost seats in them. The Senate map is less favourable for Democrats, since only about a third of its seats are contested this year.

Democrats favoured in the House, Senate harder

SRF and RP Online both consider a Democratic House majority very likely, since the party needs only a few additional seats there. Winning Senate control is harder: according to both outlets, Democrats would have to take four seats from Republicans, partly in states Trump carried in 2024. Early voting points the same way, with registered Democrats' leads larger than in past elections in many states and turnout higher. RP Online also cites pollster Patrick Ruffini, who said three quarters of polls between 2018 and 2024 overstated Democratic support, as a reason for caution. Blick notes that a Senate change would make it harder for Trump to get judges and other appointments confirmed.

Trump's standing and the cost-of-living debate

Trump's approval averages about 37% across recent polls, and an Ipsos poll for Reuters put it at 31%.

Average of recent polls37%

Ipsos for Reuters31%

Average of recent polls

37 %

Ipsos for Reuters

31 %

Data from the article text

Affordability is the dominant campaign theme, according to SRF, which notes that Trump promised in 2024 to bring prices down quickly, while his tariffs have been inflationary and the Iran war pushed up petrol and gas prices. Corruption is another concern: a Financial Times and Focaldata poll found 69% of Americans worried about corruption or conflicts of interest in government, including 50% of people who voted for Trump in 2024. A Washington Post and NBC News survey found two-thirds of Americans believe Trump uses his office to enrich himself.

All Americans69%

2024 Trump voters50%

All Americans

69 %

2024 Trump voters

50 %

Data from the article text

Races to watch

In Texas, Democrat James Talarico is level with Republican Ken Paxton in polls, and Republicans are spending hundreds of millions of dollars to hold the seat. Paxton was acquitted by the Texas Senate after an impeachment process in 2023 over allegations that he favoured a donor, and RP Online says a Talarico win would make him the first Democrat to hold the seat since 1993. In Kansas, Republican Roger Marshall, a former gynaecologist, faces pastor Adam Hamilton, 61, and the two are level in polls. A New York Times investigation found Marshall sued hundreds of people who could not pay their bills, sometimes demanding steep interest. Trump has mocked Talarico as "TalaFREAKo" and repeated an unproven claim about his diet.

What a Democratic win would mean

A Democratic majority in one chamber could curb Trump's power over legislation and the budget, and an impeachment would be possible but hard to carry out, according to WirtschaftsWoche. Trump has promised every American $5,000 if Republicans win, a pledge WirtschaftsWoche estimates at about 1.25 trillion dollars based on roughly 250 million eligible voters. Forbes reports his fortune has grown 183% since the start of his second term, to $6.5 billion, mainly through cryptocurrency investments. The Wall Street Journal reports that representatives of a member of the UAE royal family signed a deal shortly before Trump's inauguration to buy 49% of World Liberty Financial, a crypto firm Trump founded with his sons, for half a billion dollars. A lawsuit has been filed against that deal and other crypto transactions from which Trump and his family profit directly or indirectly.