Escalation halted

President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that he had cancelled US strikes against Iran scheduled for Thursday evening after receiving what he described as approval of a peace deal from Iran's highest leadership. The announcement came hours after Trump threatened more bombings and spoke of seizing the Iranian oil export hub of Kharg Island.

“I have, as President of the United States of America, cancelled the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening.”

The naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains in full force until the agreement is signed, Trump added, with Vice President JD Vance likely to attend a signing ceremony in Europe as early as this weekend.

Tehran's response

Iranian state-linked agencies Tasnim and Fars, close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, quickly denied that Tehran had approved any text, while state television posted that Trump "tells a lie and boasts every hour". Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei told reporters that large parts of the agreement had been finalized but no final conclusion had been reached.

“We have not reached a final conclusion on this matter.”

Nevertheless, the Iranian news agency Mehr published what it described as a draft agreement on Friday, calling for 60 days of negotiations on the nuclear issue and full sanctions relief, alongside the release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian funds.

A three-month conflict

The conflict erupted on 28 February 2026 when the US and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury, a massive assault on Iranian strategic targets that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The new leadership under his son Mojtaba retaliated on 1 March with Operation True Promise 4, striking Israel, US bases, and Gulf petro-monarchies. On 4 March Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a global energy shock. A fragile ceasefire on 8 April was followed by failed direct talks in Islamabad, and the US completed a naval blockade of the strait on 12 April.

Markets rally on optimism

Wall Street and Asian markets seized on the prospect of a peace deal, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 1.64% and oil prices dropping more than 3% to two-month lows. Despite the rally, tension persisted in the Strait of Hormuz; US forces shot down two Iranian one-way attack drones after Tehran attempted to strike commercial ships, and Iranian state media reported the military had stopped a tanker from transiting the waterway.

What comes next

Trump said a signing could take place in Europe, possibly before the G7 summit in Évian, with Vice President JD Vance representing the United States. The agreement, described as a memorandum of understanding, covers both the nuclear file and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. With Iran insisting the text is its own proposal and mediators from Qatar and other Gulf states involved, the coming days will show whether the deal holds or becomes another false dawn in a war that has killed thousands and upended global energy flows.