Trump sidelines Vance from Iran talks and says a deal is no longer a priority

A shift to economic pressure

On Thursday, 12 November, Trump wrote on Truth Social that the United States no longer needed a deal with Iran, and he asked Vance to turn his full attention to alleged corruption among Democrats. Vance had been Washington's chief negotiator in talks with Tehran, and the post made clear that an agreement was no longer a government priority. Trump said the US holds Iranian money in frozen overseas accounts. After meeting Qatar's prime minister at the White House, he said Gulf Arab allies prefer the status quo of continued economic pressure on Iran, and that an attack seems quite unlikely while the US stays locked and loaded. Nasser Hadian, a professor of international relations at the University of Tehran, read the move mainly as a confrontation with the Democrats, and as a message to Iran that a deal is not a priority. In his post, Trump wrote:

“We don't need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed. We've got their money.”

Vance and the negotiating track

Vance was seen in Tehran as one of the more pragmatic figures in the Trump administration after the US and Israel launched their war on Iran on 28 February. He is believed to have favoured a negotiated end because of rising costs for American citizens and polling that showed opposition to the war. In April he led the American delegation to Islamabad, which was meant to negotiate a ceasefire. A memorandum of understanding negotiated in June, with the backing of envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, briefly paused the fighting and restarted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. That memorandum is now defunct, and Trump, who signed it, now rejects it. According to the New York Times, shortly before the midterms Vance sent a confidential letter to Iran's security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, proposing a return to comprehensive talks at the highest level. Those talks are now unlikely to be led by Vance, who has been redirected to domestic issues.

Military options set aside

The New York Times reports that Trump has, at least for now, set aside military options that involved intense but time-limited attacks on military installations, nuclear sites and some energy infrastructure. A plan to send commandos to seize roughly 970 pounds of uranium enriched to 60 percent has been abandoned for the moment. The analysis of whether the largest American bunker busters could reach Pickaxe Mountain, where US intelligence believes advanced centrifuges may be located, has also been shelved. IAEA reports put Iran's stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent at approximately 440 kg. At a G7 foreign ministers' meeting in Paris, Secretary of State Marco Rubio described a strategy of strategic patience, waiting for sanctions to take their toll on the government. Rubio also said the United States could act if Iran crossed certain red lines. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who has faced an impeachment vote over his role in the war, and Central Command chief Brad Cooper are reportedly in favour of renewed military action.

Midterms, Israel and the region

Republicans lost six Senate seats in conservative strongholds including Mississippi, Iowa and Texas, and Trump's party lost its majority in Congress. In Alaska the count is still underway, and the Democrat Mary Peltola leads there. Vance blamed the war for the defeat on X. In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whom Trump had backed, is on the cusp of being ousted after elections, and Israel is reportedly eager for new US strikes on Iran. UAE diplomat Anwar Gargash told an audience in Abu Dhabi that the region must:

“prepare for a prolonged period of uncertainty, in which neither a decisive resolution nor a stable regional order can be taken for granted.”

Hormuz and the cost of the status quo

Iran requires ships to obtain permission before navigating the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that was open and free before the war, and official Iranian social media accounts regularly post videos of attacks on vessels that break the rule. The US is escorting oil tankers along a route close to Oman's coastline. That has helped Arab states export oil, but it has not restored pre-war output of liquefied natural gas, fertilizer and aluminum. The Independent argues that Iran cannot absorb another prolonged war without severe economic, social and political consequences, and that an agreement could benefit both sides.