Trump says new strikes on Iran are highly unlikely while talks on nuclear and Hormuz continue

A conditional assurance

Donald Trump told CNN in a telephone interview lasting about 20 minutes that new military action against Iran is highly unlikely. He repeated that assessment as many as five times, linking it to progress in negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. He tied the outcome to whether Iran signs a very strong agreement. He described Iran as a failing state, citing inflation of 301% this year, and said its economy was collapsing and its military had been hit hard. He added that the United States could finish Iran off if it chose to, but that he did not expect to need to.

Forces in the region and targets

Trump said US forces are positioned in the region and ready to act if he gives the order. He said the country has three aircraft carriers there, with the third having just arrived. Potential targets inside Iran include power plants and bridges, and he claimed 38 bridges could be brought down within an hour. He said he would prefer not to destroy that infrastructure, because rebuilding bridges would take ten years. Trump also claimed Iran's air defences were exhausted and that it retained 10% of its missiles and 15% of its drones, figures set out below. Many of its factories, he said, no longer exist.

Iran inflation this year301%

Iranian missiles held (Trump's figure)10%

Iranian drones held (Trump's figure)15%

Iran inflation this year

301 %

Iranian missiles held (Trump's figure)

10 %

Iranian drones held (Trump's figure)

15 %

Data from the article text

An eight-month impasse

Eight months after the war began, the two sides are deadlocked, with no significant military action and no substantial diplomatic progress. Vessels attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz have either hit mines or come under Iranian attack, according to the reporting. Qatar has been mediating the talks, but the two countries and Qatari officials have kept silent about where the negotiations stand. Trump had earlier sent contradictory signals about his willingness to end the war, one report noted. Trump's assurances are therefore the main public signal on the process.

Iran's reading of the midterms

Iranian hardliners, according to the reports, read the results of the midterm elections held the week before the interview as a sign that Trump's presidency is weakening. The reports say unpopularity of the war among American voters helped fuel that result. Those hardliners expect Trump to be more willing to accept Tehran's demands to keep its nuclear programme, which Iran says it needs for energy, and to retain control of the Strait. Iran also has difficulty selling crude oil on global markets because of US sanctions. Billions of dollars in assets held in foreign banks have been frozen.

What remains unknown

The articles do not give the current status of the talks, the date of any next round, or an official Iranian response to Trump's remarks. Neither Washington nor Tehran has publicly described what a strong agreement would contain. The reporting also does not confirm the inflation, missile and drone figures Trump cited. Those claims stand as his own statements.