Trump pauses Iran strikes for talks as Pakistan warns of ground offensive

A negotiated pause

After 13 days of airstrikes, President Donald Trump halted US military operations against Iran on Friday 24 July, giving mediation a narrow window. He told Axios the two sides are in "very deep negotiations," but warned he would allow "not much time" for them to succeed. The decision, he said, came on advice from Qatar and Pakistan.

We are in very deep negotiations with Iran. If they don't, we will again use very strong military force.

On Monday, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Bakaei flatly contradicted Trump's account. He said mediators may carry messages about regional developments but stressed no talks are taking place. Bakaei dismissed as "fabrications that the other side puts out from time to time" the claim that Iran had requested a meeting.

Derzeit stehen wir jedoch in keinerlei Verhandlungen mit den Vereinigten Staaten.

Iranian forces said they too had ceased their "retaliation" strikes over the weekend, but Bakaei insisted separate bilateral talks with Oman on managing the Strait of Hormuz do not involve Washington and that the waterway remains "closed."

Pakistan warns of ground offensive

Pakistani intelligence services believe a limited US ground offensive against Iranian coastal areas is increasingly likely, security sources in Islamabad told dpa. The assessment, drawn from military observations, suggests Trump may ignore warnings from his own military and order a land incursion. Pakistan, alongside Qatar, has been relaying new proposals between the adversaries, though Iran is demanding a permanent ceasefire and rejecting a temporary halt.

Iran's armed forces spokesman Amir Akraminia said the military is ready for any ground attack. Experts consider an invasion highly dangerous: US soldiers would face missile and drone barrages without the protection of Gulf-state bases. The IISS think tank estimates Iran has roughly 610,000 active soldiers and paramilitaries, plus 350,000 reservists.

Strait of Hormuz and oil markets

The waterway, through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil passes, remains largely paralysed. US military command CENTCOM reported that 17 ships have been forced to turn back, two boarded, and two others disabled since the latest escalation. Iran has been stopping vessels, and the US imposed its own blockade.

News of the pause sent crude prices tumbling on Monday: Brent fell nearly 8% to $89.12 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate dropped almost 7% to $83.21, heading for the steepest single-day decline in more than two months, according to Reuters. Analysts cautioned that supply disruptions are likely to keep prices elevated.

Internal US concerns

CNN reported that Vice President JD Vance and General Dan Caine, the top US military officer, raised alarm about escalation risks. Caine cited dwindling stocks of Patriot air-defense missiles, in part because former President Joe Biden's administration had sent them to Ukraine. Trump responded that the US has ample ammunition and production is being ramped up.

We have a lot of munition, different types — more than we could ever use.

The meeting also flagged the danger of civilian casualties, after Trump earlier threatened to strike bridges, roads, and power plants in Iran.

Regional spillover

Tensions are radiating beyond the Gulf. Saudi Arabia said it intercepted drones launched from Iraq, and Israel shot down two drones near its border with Jordan over the weekend, underscoring the wider instability triggered by the US-Iran standoff.