Nine-country warning

Mohammad Mohbeer, a conservative politician who advises Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, said Iran would strike several US allies in the Middle East if it were attacked again. The remarks, carried by the Tasnim news agency, referred to nine countries and tied the retaliation to attacks on Iranian military bases or petrochemical facilities. He did not name the nine countries. His statement repeated a threat made earlier by Iran's new defence minister, Mehrdad Akhlaghi Ketabchi.

Hossein Mohebbi, spokesman for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, took a different line on Monday, 19 October. He said most American bases in the region are no longer operational and that US forces have been moved hundreds of kilometres away from Iran. In his view, Washington entered the war with its full military power but can no longer start a new conflict that would bring it any further benefit. He also said the war is not over and that the Guards have prepared for a long war.

Targets beyond the Middle East

Throughout September, Iranian military commanders issued a series of public messages claiming Iran had built up large stocks of new weapons. In late September, Mohebbi said the Guards had new targets that had not yet been struck. Iranian officials have left open the possibility of hitting undersea internet cables, AI data centres and regional oil and gas facilities if hostilities resume.

Farzin Nadimi, a senior researcher at the Washington Institute, told CNN that if Tehran used long-range missiles against European targets, American military facilities in Britain and the Ramstein base in Germany could be among them. He described such a move as a severe escalation that would only come at a very advanced stage of the conflict. No confirmation exists that Iran has decided to attack European targets.

Concerns rose in early October, when the US withdrew long-range bombers stationed at RAF Fairford in Britain and sent them back to US bases after an unspecified threat. A few days earlier, British authorities had arrested several suspects in connection with an alleged Iranian plot targeting the air base where the bombers were stationed.

Stalemate and US options

Nearly nine months after the United States and Israel began their war on Iran in February, the conflict has reached a deadlock with no clear end. The Trump administration is weighing new economic and military measures to force Tehran into concessions, while Iran continues to resist. Both sides claim victory: Tehran points to its survival, and Washington points to the damage it inflicted on the Iranian regime. According to several US officials cited by CNN, the Pentagon has drawn up plans that include the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb, the most powerful non-nuclear weapon in the US arsenal.

Diplomacy and the Strait of Hormuz

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on X that the last time Washington wanted to finish the job, Iran emerged stronger, and warned that Iran also has unfinished business. He accused Benjamin Netanyahu of pushing America into another war to avoid prison, regardless of the consequences for Israel. Araghchi said the Strait of Hormuz, which was closed during the conflict, would reopen within days if the US accepts Iran's proposal for a seven-day ceasefire, according to CBS News. The reported terms include unfreezing billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets, dropping sanctions on Iranian oil and lifting the naval blockade, with the strait reopening only on the final day. Trump rejected the proposal, and several US officials told The Wall Street Journal that he doubted Iran would honour its commitments.

Civilians in Tehran

A 70-year-old Tehran resident told CNN that he and others wait every day and night for the bombing to resume. He has charged all his portable batteries and stored water in preparation for air raids. Ordinary Iranians, already worn down by years of conflict and economic uncertainty, live with the fear that the war could return at any moment.