In brief
Trump puts hundreds of millions into the midterms
President Donald Trump said in a social media post on Tuesday, 20 October 2026, that he had already spent more than $300 million on the Republican midterm campaign. He said he would invest more than $400 million (356.35 million euros) before election day, on advertising, rallies and voter mobilisation. Republicans currently hold both the Senate and the House of Representatives, and the November vote will decide whether that continues.
Defence stocks fall on bets for a Democratic win
Defence shares have slid because investors expect Democrats to win in November. The iShares US Aerospace and Defence ETF fell 16% between early July and mid-October 2026, while the S&P 500 rose 3.5% over the same stretch. Lockheed Martin has lost almost 20% since its March high, and Northrop Grumman and L3Harris shares are down 35% and 36%. Robert Stallard, a defence analyst at Vertical Research Partners, said Trump's political fortunes and the odds of Republicans losing the Senate have moved almost in parallel with defence stocks. Trump has planned a $500 billion rise in military spending to about $1.5 trillion, a plan that Democratic control of Congress could endanger. Democrats are also unhappy with how part of that funding was pushed through Congress, and War Secretary Pete Hegseth has refused to disclose the cost of the Iran war. Shares have edged up recently ahead of quarterly results expected in the week of 26 October 2026.
- iShares US Aerospace and Defence ETF
- -16 %
- Northrop Grumman
- -35 %
- L3Harris
- -36 %
- S&P 500
- 3.5 %
Data from the article text
Iran's reported plan before the vote
The Washington Post reported, citing unnamed regional officials and diplomats, that Tehran wants to inflict the most damage it can on Trump before the midterms. According to insiders, the plan is to keep oil prices high through attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, a shift reportedly agreed at the top of the leadership. An Arab diplomat said the leadership was fixated on ending Trump's presidency, and Iranian officials reportedly expect him to be less responsive to energy prices after the vote. Iranian state television and the Fars news agency are closely following US energy prices and the midterms, and Fars argues that the Iran war is the main reason voters are turning away from Trump's party. Former foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki predicted a bad fate for Trump if he loses his congressional majorities in early November. All of these claims rest on anonymous sources.
Fuel prices weigh on voters
A survey by AP-NORC conducted at the end of September found that 65% of Americans see high prices as caused more by Trump's policies than by factors beyond his control. A Pew Research Center survey from late September to early October found that roughly three quarters of adults are very worried about energy and gasoline prices. Diesel topped $6 a gallon on average for the first time in September. AAA put the national average on Monday, 19 October 2026 at $6.3187 per gallon for diesel and $4.2953 for gasoline, compared with $3.6308 and $3.0362 a year earlier. Iowa farmer Caleb Renner told a New York Times podcast that he feels betrayed, saying Trump did the opposite of what he voted for, and that fuel costs hit his machinery directly.
- Diesel, 19 Oct 2026
- 6.3187 $ per gallon
- Diesel, a year earlier
- 3.6308 $ per gallon
- Gasoline, 19 Oct 2026
- 4.2953 $ per gallon
- Gasoline, a year earlier
- 3.0362 $ per gallon
Data from the article text
Michigan doorsteps and blame
In a Detroit suburb, Joe Losier, a UAW member who works at a car factory, is canvassing for union-endorsed candidates, most of them Democrats, in a state where every race is close. Voters mostly raise cost of living and affordability, while some worry about healthcare, pensions or their jobs. Losier says most people he asks blame Trump for the wars, petrol prices, inflation and national debt. Trump blames his predecessors instead, saying Joe Biden and Barack Obama left the country in a state that cannot be fixed in two years.