The planned strike

Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the Israeli military earlier this month to prepare a new large-scale attack on Iran for the weekend of 10 October, according to the Financial Times, which cited three sources. The plan called for several days of bombing on nuclear facilities, regime sites and political infrastructure, including electricity generating plants. Sources told the paper the operation would have been more intense than the joint US-Israeli campaign that began in February. A refreshed target list, based on newer intelligence, reportedly included infrastructure that had not been struck before.

Trump's objection and the White House response

The strike did not go ahead because Donald Trump opposed resuming hostilities before the US midterm elections on 3 November. Trump said on 9 October that Washington would not attack Iran before those elections. The White House told the FT that the United States would not attack Iran before the vote, and the deputy White House spokesperson, Anna Kelly, made the same point. Axios reported that Netanyahu and Trump had discussed re-approving a large operation against Iran before the elections. The FT's sources said it was unclear whether the US would have joined the strikes, and the Pentagon declined to comment. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth visited Israel on Monday, 19 October, meeting Netanyahu and senior officials, where the Israeli side presented the updated target list.

Pressure from both capitals ahead of the votes

Israel holds general elections on 27 October, the first since the war in Gaza began in October 2023 and after two wars with Iran, one last year and one this year. Recent polls show Netanyahu narrowly trailing the opposition. Current and former Israeli security officials have warned that starting a war so close to an election could seriously undermine democratic processes. In the US, the war that began in February has pushed Trump's approval to a record low. Polls suggest Americans worried about high petrol prices may punish the Republican Party in the 3 November congressional elections.

Iran's stance and the stalled talks

Reuters reported on 20 October, citing three senior Iranian officials and one insider, all speaking anonymously, that Tehran is deliberately prolonging talks with Washington to deny Trump a political win before the 3 November elections. The officials said Iran is preparing for renewed Israeli and US attacks rather than a deal to end the war, which is now eight months old. Iran insists its seven-point plan be met before nuclear talks begin, while the US wants the nuclear programme on the table from the start. Tehran describes the programme as purely peaceful, while Western powers say it has military dimensions. Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz since the war began, and a US naval blockade and trade sanctions have cut its oil export revenue. Trump has said he expects oil prices to fall after the election but has not outlined a detailed plan to end the war or reopen the strait.

What comes next

If no agreement is reached, a source told the FT that new joint strikes in the coming weeks remain a realistic scenario. Another source said the Israeli strike plan may have been part of a negotiating tactic and that any decision to resume hostilities rests with Trump. The Pentagon's silence leaves unclear whether US forces would take part. The next two dates are Israel's vote on 27 October and the US midterms on 3 November, one week apart.