Tisza lead narrows in September poll as Fidesz-KDNP records first gains since April
A Republikon Institute poll shows Hungary's Tisza party dropped to 54% among the general population in late September, while Fidesz-KDNP rose to 22% in its first post-election gain.
September survey findings across the population
The Republikon Institute conducted a political opinion survey for the daily newspaper Nepszava between 23 and 28 September 2026, sampling 1,000 respondents across Hungary. In the overall population, support for the Tisza party led by Peter Magyar decreased by 2 percentage points compared to August, dropping from 56% to 54%. During the same one-month timeframe, preferences for the Fidesz-KDNP coalition associated with Viktor Orban rose by 3 percentage points, increasing from 19% to 22%.
- Tisza
- 54 %
- Fidesz-KDNP
- 22 %
Republikon indicated that these monthly fluctuations within the total population fall within the statistical margin of error for the research sample. Despite the two-point decrease in overall support, Tisza maintained nearly two-and-a-half times the level of public backing registered by Fidesz-KDNP among all surveyed citizens in late September, continuing its run as the leading party.
Preference shifts among decided party voters
A more distinct realignment emerged among survey respondents who expressed definite party preferences. Within this segment of decided voters, backing for Tisza fell by 4 percentage points, shifting downward from 66% in August to 62% in September. Concurrently, support for Fidesz-KDNP advanced by 3 percentage points, moving upward from 23% to 26% over the same monthly interval.
- Tisza
- 62 %
- Fidesz-KDNP
- 26 %
The research separately evaluated decided voters who explicitly declared their intention to participate in an election. In this specific subgroup, Tisza achieved 64% support, compared to 25% for Fidesz-KDNP. Across all three categories evaluated by the institute (the total population, decided party electors, and participating decided voters), Tisza retained its position as the most supported political entity in the country.
High levels of declared voter mobilization
The September research recorded sustained readiness among Hungarian citizens to take part in national balloting. A total of 81% of surveyed respondents stated that they would definitely cast a ballot if parliamentary elections were held, indicating continued voter engagement across the country.
- Definitely will vote
- 81 %
- Probably will vote
- 9 %
An additional 9% of respondents reported that they would probably take part in a vote. Combined, these figures demonstrate that 90% of the surveyed electorate expressed positive intent toward voting in late September. This high level of participation readiness remained stable even as the distribution of partisan preferences shifted between August and September across different voter categories.
Analysis of governance and post-election momentum
The September survey was the first time since the parliamentary elections of April 2026 that Republikon recorded an increase in support for the Fidesz-KDNP coalition. The findings also represented the second consecutive month in which Tisza experienced a contraction in its polling advantage over its primary political rival.
According to the analysis published by Republikon, the winner attraction effect that followed Tisza's electoral success in April has begun to diminish over time. The institute stated that as governance commenced, internal policy disputes and differences of opinion emerged, contributing to a partial outflow of voters from Tisza. Even with these recent monthly declines, overall support for Tisza continues to stand above the result the party secured during its April election victory.
