Aemet expects stable weather for Spain's Pilar holiday, with storms in the Canaries and Ceuta

Friday keeps the unsettled weather in the south and islands

Friday 9 October is the only day forecast to bring real instability, according to Aemet, which has placed the southern tip of the peninsula, Ceuta and the Canary Islands under watch for showers and storms that could be locally strong. The Balearic Islands could see intense afternoon showers as well. Aemet has activated six regional warnings for the day: orange for swell in Catalonia and the Balearics, and yellow for rain in Andalusia, the Region of Murcia, Lanzarote and Ceuta, where a storm alert is also in place. Menorca and Girona are under an orange swell warning with waves that could reach five metres, while Mallorca has a yellow one. In Lanzarote the yellow rain warning runs from 15:00 on Friday until 06:00 on Saturday and covers the whole island, with up to 15 litres per square metre expected in one hour. Elsewhere on the mainland skies should be mostly clear, with strong northerly and easterly winds on the peninsula and in the Balearics.

Saturday brings the warm-up

Saturday 10 October is the day Aemet expects the DANA to pull away toward Africa, though it could still bring storms to Lanzarote and cloud across most of the Canaries. Temperatures are forecast to rise across most of the country except the southern third. Seville is expected to reach 30 degrees, Huelva 29, and Badajoz and Cordoba around 28, while Madrid is forecast at 21 degrees. Aemet describes these readings as above normal for the time of year, according to a post on its social media accounts. Its spokesman Ruben del Campo has said temperatures would exceed 20 degrees across almost the entire territory and 25 degrees in Andalusia. Winds are expected to be lighter than on Friday across most of the country.

Sunday and Monday: a front, then stable skies

On Sunday a front approaching the far north in the afternoon could darken the skies and bring weak rain to the Cantabrian coast and northern Galicia, although Aemet says none of it will be significant. The Canaries and the Alboran area may still see showers, some locally moderate and a few possibly strong. Roberto Brasero, the Antena 3 meteorologist, summed up the rest of the weekend in these words:

Sunshine prevails. The morning is cold, yes, like today or a bit colder. In the afternoon, plenty of sun.

For Monday 12 October, the national holiday marking Dia de la Hispanidad, Aemet expects stable weather on the peninsula with no significant precipitation. Del Campo gave the temperature outlook for the first days of next week in these words:

In the first days of next week, 30 degrees will be exceeded in the southern half and 25 degrees in wide areas of the rest of the country.

Holiday travel and a longer outlook

The DGT expects 5.7 million trips on Spanish roads over the bridge, which includes the Monday holiday and the Friday and weekend days before it. Brasero's forecast points to fewer storms and higher temperatures from Monday onward, although stability will not reach every part of the country equally. Jorge Rey, a young forecaster who uses the Cabanuelas method, predicts stormy days in the Levante on 10 and 11 October, with an air mass from Africa lifting temperatures in the east on Monday. He also expects a new anticyclone to bring calmer conditions in the final days of October.