Cold snap and heavy rain forecast for Spain as temperatures fall from Friday, 30 October

Temperatures fall from Friday

A mass of cold air from central and northern Europe is expected to push temperatures down across much of Spain from Friday, 30 October, according to forecasts from the Servei Meteorològic de Catalunya and the Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (Aemet). The drop is expected to be sharpest in minimum temperatures, with many provinces approaching 5 degrees or falling below that mark. Minimums in the range of 5 to 6 degrees are forecast for Soria, Burgos and Salamanca, while Ávila, Zamora, Vitoria and Logroño are expected around 7 degrees. The spell is being described as a 'small winter', arriving after several stable, sunny days. Inland Castile and León is expected to be the coldest part of the country, as it usually is at this time of year.

Warm south, cold interior

The contrast across the country is sharp, because while the interior cools, Sevilla, Badajoz, Huelva and Jaén could see maximums approaching 30 degrees. Morning mist or fog is likely in Galicia, the Cantabrian coast, Melilla, eastern Albacete and the lower Ebro. Light frosts are expected on the Pyrenean summits, with maximum temperatures set to fall in the Cantabrian area, the west of the plateaus and the northeast, but to rise in western Galicia. In the Canary Islands, temperatures will ease slightly and traces of calima will linger across the eastern half of the archipelago. In Catalonia, Meteocat expects Friday maximums of around 20 degrees or a little lower in many places, with abundant low cloud and fog cutting visibility in the Central depression while the Pyrenees enjoy sunshine.

Showers on the east and Mediterranean coast

Rain arrives from the east on Friday, with weak precipitation or scattered showers forecast along the Catalan and Valencian coasts and in the Balearic Islands. Aemet's forecast allows for strong showers and a few storms in the Balearics. In southern Catalonia, weak and locally moderate rain is possible across the southern third of the region, with showers from midday on the southern pre-coast and later in the western Pre-Pyrenees and the northeast tip. Terres de l'Ebre may see weak, isolated showers. The chance of rain is expected to rise as the day progresses.

Weekend outlook and early November

On Saturday, 31 October, Catalonia is forecast to have variable weather, with abundant cloud and weak, isolated showers in the south, Central Catalonia and the northeast. Aemet models, which remain somewhat uncertain, warn of intense rain that day in Valencia, Catalonia, Murcia and the Balearic Islands. Earlier, Aemet had referred to persistent rain and significant accumulations on the Mediterranean coast on Saturday. Sunday, 1 November, should bring more sun across much of the territory, while temperatures keep falling and could drop further in the first days of the week of 2 November.

Longer-range signals

The polar vortex, a system of low pressure and strong winds over the Arctic at roughly 15 to 50 kilometres altitude, is being watched for its possible role in pushing cold air toward Europe. El Confidencial reports that a weakening vortex could raise the odds of cold air reaching the continent, but there is no sign yet that it will bring a notable cold episode to Spain in November. Stratospheric warming can take two to six weeks to reach the lower atmosphere, while forecast models give useful signals about 10 to 14 days ahead. Separately, Copernicus's seasonal forecast, in a version dated 10 October, points to a warmer and wetter than normal winter across most of Europe, with a weaker rain signal in the south. Seasonal outlooks of this kind give only probabilities for three-month averages and do not say how much rain will fall.