Rain, gales and rough seas to hit Italy from Thursday 5 November, Sardinia on red alert

A new disturbance arrives from the west

Meteorologists expect a new disturbance moving in from Spain and the Balearic Islands to bring rain, wind and rough seas to Italy. Lorenzo Tedici, media meteorologist at iLMeteo.it, said it will first reach Piedmont and the largest islands before spreading across the rest of the country by Saturday 7 November. Wednesday 4 November stays variable but mostly dry, with temperatures in line with seasonal averages. Weak snowfall is forecast only in the western Alps.

“On the western Alpine arc, weak snowfalls are expected above 1,400 to 1,500 metres.”

Ground accumulations on the border ridges are expected to stay below 2 to 5 cm.

Heaviest rain in Sardinia and Sicily

On Thursday 5 November, scattered rain is forecast for eastern Sardinia and Sicily, with 10 to 20 mm in 24 hours in each area. Forecasters at iLMeteo.it put eastern Sardinia higher, at 40 to 60 mm in 24 hours, with local peaks of 70 to 80 mm. Persistent rain is also expected over eastern Sicily, where southerly winds meet the terrain around Mount Etna. The forecast for Friday 6 November puts 50 to 60 mm in 24 hours over Tuscany and the central Tyrrhenian regions, with lighter rain in Emilia-Romagna. Scattered showers are also expected over Liguria, Piedmont and Sicily that day.

Wind, sea and school closures

On Thursday 5 November, southerly winds are forecast to gust between 40 and 50 km/h over the channels and the Ligurian Sea, making the sea very rough. Scirocco winds could gust up to 70 km/h over Sardinia and the central-southern Tyrrhenian, with waves up to 3 metres high. Sardinia is under a red weather alert across much of its eastern side. The mayor of Olbia has ordered nurseries, leisure centres, social services and parks closed, alongside schools, on Thursday 5 November. Other Sardinian mayors are signing similar orders, and the education ministry says days lost to bad weather are not made up, since they count as force majeure.

Cold spell and the outlook to 20 November

Mario Giuliacci, a colonel and meteorologist, expects cold air to remain until 6 November, followed by milder and rainier Atlantic currents between 7 and 14 November, mainly over the north east and the Tyrrhenian regions. High pressure is forecast for 15 to 20 November, with little rain confined to the south, warm days and cold nights. Simone Abelli expects temperatures 2 or 3 degrees below average during the week, though without any memorable cold. He also addressed the snow outlook.

“On the Western Alps no major snowfalls are forecast, only generally weak phenomena, at fairly high altitudes, above 1,500 metres.”

From Sunday 8 November, high pressure is expected to strengthen over the Mediterranean, bringing more humid air and a new rise in temperatures.