Cold air brings rain to Italy's Adriatic and south, then first snow on the Apennines

A split picture on Thursday and Friday

Italy is expected to be divided in two on Thursday, 29 October, with a mostly sunny and dry Tyrrhenian side and a cloudier Adriatic coast, according to iLMeteo.it. Lorenzo Tedici, the service's chief media meteorologist, said the shift would come from north-east winds reaching the Adriatic side on Friday and Saturday.

“After a Thursday that is mostly sunny and dry across the whole country, north-east winds with gusts up to 40-50 km/h will affect the Adriatic side on Friday and Saturday.”

The sea on that side is forecast to become very rough, with waves between 1.5 and 2.5 metres. Naples could reach 21°C on Thursday, while on Friday, 30 October, the north-west should see morning cloud that clears in the afternoon.

Friday and Saturday: showers in the south and along the Adriatic

The Civil Protection Department has issued a yellow alert for storms and hydrogeological risk on Friday, 30 October, covering much of central-northern Puglia and the Molise coast. The first retreat of high pressure will let colder air from the Balkans in, bringing rain and storms to the south and the central Adriatic. Forecasts for Friday differ in scale: one describes isolated showers in Marche, Abruzzo, Molise, Puglia, Basilicata, Calabria, eastern Sicily and locally eastern Sardinia, with totals of no more than 5 mm over 24 hours, while another expects widespread rain and storms in the south, most intense on the Adriatic and Ionian sectors. The north should stay mostly sunny apart from isolated showers over the pre-Alpine areas.

On Saturday, 31 October, scattered rain is expected along the Adriatic strip from Marche to Puglia, with some spillover into Basilicata, Calabria, eastern Sicily and eastern Sardinia. One forecast puts accumulations at 5 to 10 mm over 24 hours. Elsewhere, brighter spells should dominate, with clear skies over Tuscany and Lazio.

Sunday, 1 November: colder air and the first snow

Sunday, 1 November, is expected to be the peak of the bad weather, as a new cold front moves down from Scandinavia. Temperatures are forecast to fall by 1-2°C, while cloud over the central Apennines thickens and the first snow falls on the ridges. The snow line is where the forecasts diverge: one puts it at 1,400 to 1,500 metres on the central Apennines, while another gives 1,200 to 1,300 metres for the Centre (Abruzzo, Lazio and Molise) and 1,800 to 1,900 metres for the South. Rain is also expected to persist on Sunday from the Adriatic down to the South and across eastern sectors, with some showers in Emilia-Romagna and, late in the evening, the Alpine arc with snow at low altitudes.

Cold air from the north-east and the week ahead

The cold air mass is traced back to Finland, the Barents Sea and Russia, according to iLMeteo.it meteorologist Mattia Gussoni, who described its path toward Italy.

“The cold air, moving toward lower latitudes, will reach Italy and, for the first time, bring a late-autumn setting.”

The unsettled phase is forecast to last into early next week. From Monday, 2 November, a further cold influx is expected to lower temperatures by another 2-3°C, with instability across the Centre and South and possible snow on the central-northern Apennines, and locally the south, at 1,200 to 1,500 metres. That would extend the wet pattern beyond Sunday, and 3Bmeteo points to the Adriatic and southern Italy as the most exposed areas.