Ryanair profit falls 15% in first half as fuel bill set to rise by €2bn in 2027

First-half results

Ryanair reported a profit of about €2.15bn for the first half of its 2027 financial year, covering April to September 2026. That is 15% below the same period a year earlier. Revenue rose 3% to €10.08bn and passenger numbers grew 6% to 125.8 million, but operating costs climbed 10% to €7.69bn. Average fares fell 4% as the Middle East conflict made consumers hesitant and delayed bookings, according to chief executive Michael O'Leary.

Revenue10,080

Operating costs7,690

Revenue

10080 € million

Operating costs

7690 € million

Data from the article text

Fuel bill and hedging

Jet fuel is the main pressure on the airline. Ryanair expects its fuel costs to rise by about €2bn in its next financial year, which ends in March 2028. Around 80% of its fuel needs through March 2027 are hedged at $67 a barrel, while about 25% of the following 12 months are hedged at $95 a barrel. The unhedged portion, around 20% of needs, roughly doubled in the period to about $130 a barrel, according to El Confidencial and La Razón. Oil hit a six-month high on Friday, 30 October, and fell to about $110 a barrel on Monday, The Guardian reported.

Hedged to March 2027 at $67 a barrel80%

12 months to March 2028 at $95 a barrel25%

Hedged to March 2027 at $67 a barrel

80 %

12 months to March 2028 at $95 a barrel

25 %

Data from the article text

O'Leary set out the outlook in a company statement.

“Unless there is a swift resolution of the Middle East conflict we expect jet fuel prices to remain elevated well into 2027.”

Cost-cutting measures

Ryanair is reviewing costs across all of its group airlines. The focus areas include airport agreements, labour contracts, crew ratios and greater use of artificial intelligence. Several pay deals need renegotiating from March, and the company may not renew them if fuel prices stay high, O'Leary said. Finance director Neil Sorahan said in an interview after the results that pay freezes were among the options on the table.

Hiring is also slowing. O'Leary described the recruitment position in these words.

“We are slowing down hiring meaningfully as the number of new pilots and cabin crew recruitment and training courses are running.”

The company plans to expand AI use in back-office and support functions, and says it has already used AI to raise capacity by 4%. Deliveries of new aircraft are set to drop from about 30 a year to 15 for the next couple of years. The lighter winter programme leaves Ryanair expecting to carry 214 million passengers over the full year, down from 216 million planned.

Fares and outlook

Ryanair expects European short-haul fares to rise materially next year, as the hedging deals taken out by airlines come to an end. Reports of the forecast vary: The Guardian cites increases of as much as 20%, while the Financial Times describes double-digit percentage rises. The company expects those increases to cover only part of the extra fuel bill. Fares in the final quarter are trending modestly ahead of last year, but the booking window is short and the outcome depends on October-November school midterm and Christmas bookings. The company's shares have fallen by about a quarter since the start of the year, according to the Financial Times. Post-tax profit for the quarter to September was €1.61bn, down 6% year on year and in line with analyst expectations.