Michael O'Leary, chief executive of Ryanair, told reporters at a press conference in Brussels on Tuesday, 20 October, that airfares in Europe would rise by 10 to 20 per cent next year. He called it the biggest increase in airfares in European history over the next 12 months. O'Leary said fewer seats would be available as airlines go bankrupt or are taken over, and that this shortage, combined with unhedged fuel costs, could push fares up by as much as 20%. Higher ticket prices would not fully offset the rising fuel bill, so airline margins would shrink. He also said Europe would probably subsidise large carriers such as Lufthansa and Air France. France's civil aviation authority, the DGAC, reported that airfares from French departure points rose 10.6% year on year in September 2026.
“You're going to see airfares rise next year in Europe, I think by 10, 15, maybe 20 per cent.”
Jet fuel has roughly doubled since the war in the Middle East began at the end of February. Figures from the French aviation federation FNAM put the price at about 750 dollars a tonne before the conflict, 1,550 dollars on average in September and 1,590 dollars on 8 October. Fuel usually accounts for nearly a third of airline operating costs. O'Leary said most European carriers had locked in much of their 2026 fuel at fixed prices, but that most of them lack significant cover from April 2027. Ryanair itself has 15% of next year's fuel costs covered at 85 dollars a barrel, while spot prices are around double that level.
“As we go out into next year, we're only 15% hedged at $85 a barrel.”
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Ryanair is cutting 20 routes and more than one million seats from Belgium for its winter schedule. The move responds to a Belgian plan to raise the aviation tax per passenger from 2 euros to 7 euros in January. Spanish cities Barcelona, Madrid, Valencia and Malaga are among those affected by the decision. O'Leary also said Ryanair would reduce its presence in France in response to higher charges there. Ryanair will pay 1.5 billion euros in EU emissions trading compliance costs in 2026, and O'Leary wants the scheme extended to all flights to and from the EU, including long-haul services run by Lufthansa and Air France-KLM. In a Euronews interview he accused European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen of doing little to improve competitiveness.
O'Leary said he was optimistic that US certification of Boeing's 737 MAX 10 would be completed this month, which would let Ryanair receive 16 aircraft in early 2027. US Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy was expected to announce on Tuesday that the Federal Aviation Administration had approved the long-delayed jet, after a software navigation glitch threatened further delay. Ryanair's hedging contracts expire in April 2027, and the Belgian tax increase takes effect in January. O'Leary said Ryanair would still be profitable next year, though less so than now, if oil prices stay high.
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Ryanair's chief executive says fuel costs and expiring hedges will push European fares up 10 to 20% in 2027, while the airline cuts 20 routes from Belgium.
AI text based on reports by BFMTV, Stirile ProTV, LaVanguardia and other publishers. Published .