Russia prepares draft of 300,000 troops as Poland warns of European transit sabotage

Conscription preparations and digital systems

Russia is preparing to draft another 300,000 men into its military by the end of 2026, according to information from a European security official. In recent months, Kremlin officials and staff at military recruitment centers have attempted to open foreign bank accounts, transfer assets abroad, and urge relatives to leave the country. Moscow has quietly established digital infrastructure designed to issue military call-ups while simultaneously blocking potential escape routes for eligible citizens. Unlike the September 2022 mobilization that sparked public unrest and led tens of thousands of people to flee abroad, authorities may conduct this draft without any formal public announcement. Russian President Vladimir Putin has dismissed reports of post-election mobilization as complete nonsense and described them as a Western information campaign. Meanwhile, sources in Moscow report that approximately 1,000 Russian soldiers are killed each week in Ukraine, not including the wounded.

Duma elections and political control

The draft preparations coincide with three days of parliamentary voting for the State Duma, the lower house of Russia's parliament. The election began on Friday, 18 September 2026, and concludes on Sunday, 20 September 2026. Approximately 111 million citizens are eligible to cast ballots across the country. The ruling United Russia party is expected to maintain its legislative majority after the Kremlin eliminated opposition contenders and suppressed public dissent. Analysts at Poland's National Security Bureau describe the electoral process as a non-democratic formality designed to preserve regime stability.

Sabotage targeting European transit routes

Poland's National Security Bureau reports that disrupting Western assistance to Ukraine has become Moscow's primary operational objective across Europe. Polish security officials stated that Russian intelligence services have intensified aggressive actions since early September against logistics routes used for supplies. Major General Adam Rzeczkowski, Director of the Department of Armed Forces Oversight at the bureau, stated that these operations focus directly on transport nodes, including railway networks, bridges, and border crossing checkpoints. Rzeczkowski noted that Moscow shifted toward infrastructure disruption after failing to prevent Western financial assistance from reaching Kyiv.

Blocking the ability to provide assistance to Ukraine is the primary objective of the Russian Federation's activities in Europe. Russia failed to cut Ukraine off from financial support, which is why it moved to attempts to destroy infrastructure.

Strategic escalation and NATO assessment

Polish security assessments indicate that an escalation of Russian military operations against Ukraine is probable throughout the upcoming autumn and winter period. Colonel Mariusz Soliwodzki, Deputy Director of the Analysis Department at the National Security Bureau, evaluated the probability of a secondary mobilization wave after the parliamentary vote as moderately high. Soliwodzki noted that the strategic impact will depend on the eventual scale of conscription and how quickly new forces alter battlefield dynamics. While direct military conflict with NATO allies remains improbable in the short term because of collective defense risks, officials warned that unconventional attacks remain a persistent threat.

A more realistic scenario remains increasingly aggressive Russian actions below the threshold of war, including the use of strictly military means.

The Analysis Department at the bureau also concluded that the Russian political system is currently incapable of democratic reform. Bureau officials stated that the Kremlin will remain unable to conduct foreign relations based on mutual benefit in the foreseeable future, regardless of which political figure leads the administration.